No way to know how funding will ultimately play out, but MT is the largest shareholder so he's highly motivated to minimize dilution. Personally, I'm not expecting dilution in the form of a public cap raise. I think Mitsui (a global Forbes 200 company that is loaded) will shoulder the lion's share of the capex with LKAB chipping in as well. I'm guessing the remainder will be funded with subsidies from the E.U.'s Just Transition Fund and cheap loans from private green funds.
The question is how much equity LKAB and Mitsui get for their contribution (which will effectively dilute shareholders). I expect that any deal with LKAB and Mitsui will send the SP soaring (as it will significantly de-risk the project). But, the terms of the deal will dictate how high the SP goes. This is why I'd rather be patient and let management take as much time as necessary in negotiations. The better the deal we get, the higher our return will ultimately be (even if it takes longer to get there).
It's worth noting that our new CFO just received stock options for 2M shares, and the terms include successful negotiation of financing for the Vittangi DFS. With that kind of equity, she'll be motivated to minimize dilution. If she secures a good deal, she'll be worth every one of those shares.
TLG Price at posting:
$1.42 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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