I agree with your assessment re: minster of industry noise last couple weeks.
The Department/s have almost certainly completed all there assessments and finalised their recommendations. They likely have presented 3 options. One of which is always ''do nothing'' .That option would be the one presented as the least preferable. One doesn't get promoted within a department by recommending doing nothing. Anything that widens the scope of a ministers profile or portfolio is generally rewarded.
As for timing.. hmm.. not while the PM is overseas.. and not while you have a bunch of folk running around spitting on nurses at vax hubs.. You'd want to wait for that too cool.
My guess is early October, pre COP26.
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