I will not break down Steve's data here, as I think it is a little simplistic, but in a way highly valid.
The actual potential of this play, however, completely endorses, if not overshadows the numbers presented.
I will bring to your attention the potential of the Alaskan North Slope, because I don't believe enough people have sufficient information to form a picture of the realistic potential of this very unique region.
From what I can see, this is an underexplored, unique, massive petroleum system, consisting of unconventional at multiple Tmax values, as well as an extensive array of trapped conventional oil over a vast area.
Prudhoe bay is a massive conventional pool of migrated oil. It came from source rock.
What is interesting is that the source rock takes many forms.
The shale beds hosting oil are dispersed throughout the north slope and potentially contain an enormous amount of oil.
This region is geologically unique and highly complex. It has shale at a number of different depths (Tmax) as well as a myriad of conventionally trapped oil reservoirs.
I think what PB and DW have known for some time (IMO) is that there exists potentially far more oil in the north slope than has or will ever be extracted from Prudhoe Bay.
The source rocks are potentially extensive in the horizontal and the vertical.
The HUE, the GRZ, the HRZ, the Shublik etc.
The vertical well is testing BOTH the HRZ and the HUE/GRZ.
Extract: "The Shublik and Lower Kingak account for the vast majority of the North Alaska oils discovered to date. The Pebble shale, HGZ/HRZ, and Hue shale are responsible for sourcing the remainder of the oils." This is based on the theoretical observations of a few, yet is valid.
The point is, the area is a bit of a mystery. The research to date is limited and we really don't know the true extent of the oil lying beneath the traditionally known layers.
We have always been chasing the window of thermal maturity as this holds the most promise for commercial viability, but there appears to be so much more to be found.
The research is limited. Those in the know don't really know how all this oil came to be.
"According to Peters et al., all calculations of volumes of expelled oil from each of the various sources far exceed estimates of the in place oil of the North Slope."
So where is or was all the oil?
This extract is somewhat extraordinary, alarming and potentially mind blowing.
"Magoon et al.8 estimated that the in place discovered Shublik oil amounts to 57 billion bbl.
Estimating the amount of generated oil, Peters et al.5 calculated a range of 783-1,181 billion bbl using RockEval pyrolysis and 578 billion bbl using hydrous pyrolysis."
"Referring to the huge gap between the proven oil in place, that has Shublik signature and those calculated by using RockEval or hydrous pyrolysis as having been generated, Peters concluded that "losses of expelled petroleum by dispersion, leakage and adsorption during migration through carrier beds and other processes, such as biodegradation, must be enormous." A significant portion of that unaccounted for oil still resides, no doubt in the source rocks themselves waiting to be exploited.
This is all intended to generate some thought about the potential resource beneath the 88E/Burgundy tenement. We don't own the entire north slope, but it looks like we may have acquired a large proportion of the sweet spot.
The extent to which the area is underexplored, combined with the theoretical unaccounted for oil, is exciting and may potentially put the estimates, both internal and external so far in the shadows, as to be barely recognisable.
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