still breathing?, page-13

Lol, I did SS, 'bout the second entry, I tried to be clever and nominate the range 115 to 135 but Mitta was way to clever and pinned my butt to 135. Regardless I was miles out of the money.

My thoughts were based on Lynas pretty much doing what they've done, commissioned Ph1 and well on the way to making production a reality. Re the market there was some cause for optimism that the Baotou shut down would create some balance in REO stocks and that after the Chinese NY we would start to see some firming in demand, not prices.

Part 1 turned out just fine, so far, but Part 2 remains a great big soggy, grey mess. To be honest I don't think anybody has a clue what demand numbers are going to look like this year or next, the distortions from the price bubble has been horrendous, and it was a tiny, dislocated market to start with.

Nobody wants to hear it but we've probably got at least another 6 months, maybe 12, before some solid signs of demand start to underpin the industry. Hopefully Lynas can fall back on some long negotiated contracts, and sign some new ones, thru this period and effectively build it's own market.

I'll have another go at the middle of my range and call $1.25 at Xmas.