Pinto, once again you've hit the nail on the head No 5 producer and "Well on the way to becoming the largest gold producer in Australia".as i have said before i recollect someone saying in passing(i could equally be wrong here).
That requires 4x the current production estimate for next year of 200koz to 800koz.Given Focus's ability to pull rabbits out of the hat,with only upside on grades,fun times ahead.
it is always best to recap where Focus has come from
September milled grade up 11% to 2.45g/ton from 2.15g/ton in the prior THREE QUARTERS 100koz run rate.
Doesn't seem so far to go,does it,looking at the last 5yrs growth in potential production.All we're after is 4x production and they're looking at 5x in the last 4yrs alone(40-200koz) and 2.5 to 3x from coolgardie alone in that same period.
Go the FML way.Mcfocus Steamroller chugging along -Toot Toot.Rady RA RA(chearleading here for those that accuse me of it,HOPE THEY GIVE UP and they won't read any further and can put their brains back to sleep)
But then again i've just been reading Fml's OLD PARTNERS information(DYOR+DYODD)on THE MOUNT and lets forget TI's potential,i'm DROOLING.The start points 5g/ton and there is surrounding resource of a similar potential.No wonder the quick switch to owner operator of the the resource as soon as they could finance it,to ensure WE DON"T BULK MINE IT AT 5g/TON,but follow the ore.HINT HINT.As dilution drops what happens to ore grade?Airlegging narrow veigns at 20g/ton to their pinch point versus a jumbo cut droppong it to 4g/ton or less.Of course none of it JORC compliant,but Focus know what they're sitting on and we certinly need that BIG ACCESS porthole they've just put in to get it to the surface and THE MOUNT will need it's own mill,unless Focus are happy to leave its resource in the pipeline for years ahead when coolgardie dries up,if it ever does and COOLGARDIES not at 150mtrs yet and the sites just about clear of trash/tailings for a Super Pit,should one suddenly arrive/happen. Focus calls the MOUNT a 40koz production centre.Maybe it's double,or more.If not lets split the difference and call it 60koz(near enough last years TOTAL PRODUCTION).Then there's surrounding structures? Or Maybe it's FML's safety valve when the gold price collapses and you can still mine there profitably and keep our existing mill full.
Nah,i don't think so.
After all they have said it is established as their second mining CENTRE.There must be a cheap mill going somewhere that's sitting idle looking for a new home,with some tenements and production thrown in for a few million upfront.Then again,you've got to replace the lost feed to the existing mill from somewhere,otherwise you ruin the economics there. Two years of a high gold price might just be enough to get it all in place if you get onto it straight away.Damn stones,caught in gears,then again other options arise don't they that are even more profitable to FML shareholders(not CRE's)DYOR?Cre's only worth 85% of managements input,so anything CRE needs to be 20-25% better than doing it in FML's own neck of the woods for the same effort and return to FML.
It would seem like someone at Stones has seen FML's potential path and hopped in hoping to buy leverage.Both with CRE's summit mine and AAM's cheap moveable mill and camp 30km?away.Getting into one and controlling the other.There are always other Fml options and paths and plenty more cats to skin the FML way,while things stew for years,especially if you don't have holding costs,like stone do.
Far cheaper short-term to extend their existing mill that has a 2MT crushing circuit,if you can guarantee to fill it,trucking costs included versus seperate plant running costs at the mount.
Decisions/Decisions and we're lucky to have the existing crew used to making a silk purse out of a sows ear when times were tough thus making the company as productive as it is and keeping the lid on what they've got,with plenty of distraction and uncertainty elsewhere,such as TI and CRE to keep the wolves at bay until Coolgardie hits its stride.
Bit of a problem arises,when those other uncertainties start to disappear and they too start to light up a little.A bit more camouflage might be required,to buy a bit more time,maybe,maybe not,shareholders are getting restless about the shareprice.traders are anyway.Good riddance. Lets find a new prospect and call it Solomons Revenge or "Pan's Labyrinth" to add a bit more drama and uncertainty to the FML picture and make the big boys think we're goldstruck dreamers still squandering our income. C'mon Focus announce a share buyback. Damn,can't that'd remove the uncertainty about Focus's finances.
All it needs is a quarterly saying we've poured 40koz in Coolgardie,now have $40m in the bank,announce a share buyback and we expect production to be maintained at this level.Medium to High cost producer to a very low cost producer overnight.I could do the maths for you,but 40kt of site trash per qtr reduction at .8g/ton replaced with pits at 1.8g/ton and rising,the Mount etc etc--do it yourself.underground coolgardie 3.3g/ton
A quick re-rating and the next aquisition in shares at around 20-30c per FMl share in the basket for another 50-70koz+/yr.
could be talking of 260-300koz for the following year as easy as that.1/3rd onto half way there and another 50% increase in production possible,with or without aquisition.
The jumps got to be BIG AND LARGE,or FML will be as exposed as another dog lying on its back showing its belly to a ROTWEILLER.
Normally,The bigger you get,the bigger the predator hunting you down is as you've now got enough meat to be bothered with.So one has to be undesireable,so you get large enough to eat him instead.Nothing like a non-descript lean and bony looking Pirahna,until it opens its mouth.Is that FML i wonder?Nothing worse than a large Pirahna coming your way,is there?How can you fight back.Seen pictures of the African equivalent shredding a cow in minutes and they were large.Baby FML working on being a very big FML answering to No Foreign Masters?With DT i personally have no doubts about the sharp teeth as well.
DYOR+DYODD My opinions and beliefs are mine and only a fool would consider them informed.DYOR+DYODD
FML Price at posting:
5.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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