still undervalues at a pe ratio of 4, page-10

First, congrats to Zepplin for placing some numbers around how the company looks.
I've added in some numbers and exclude vent intentionally.

Full Dilution.
Shares ~ 807M
Bond conversion ~157M
Options - 87M
Bidco initial - 375M
1426M

There is also further risk of another 188m shares on top via the bidco "additional clause"
I'll exclude this, however if executed, would dilute and lower eps.

Earnings
Earnings that matter deduct costs.
(exploration and capex is often missed)

GDO used to have an excellent, reasonably transparent line item up until recently called cash&capital.

As i outlined before, many miners look great when excluding major expenses like exp/dev&capex.

Cash Costs outlined, $472.
Actual Costs, cash & cap, 2010 is $968,
(GDO 2010 Annual Key Data, 31/1/11)

Better still lets look at this another way.

March Qtr was favourable
If we extrapolate the figures,
30k o/z, (for p.a 120k target)
Net Earnings, ex tax, 13.2m
PA Earnings, ex tax, $52.8M
If we use the raw cash cost amount, we would be miles off base.

Rand
Firstly we are worse off because we don't have exact production figures to work from.
The $1222 rand presentation figure doesn't outline if this is cash costs or other.
"approximately US$ 1,222/oz"

What we can do however is use the figures from Harmony.

Let's say
- no lag, project up and running day 1
- no capex (highly unlikely)
etc..

Rand Earnings
Extrapolate from 2010, 17.5M net
Increase 20% for increase in POG from last year.
21M
Less Finance facility, 210M @ say 7%
Say 11M to be very generous and allow round figures.
10M net earnings.

New GDO
Cash 128M
18m + (150M - 40M(Rand deal shortfall)
210M New Debt for Rand

Fully diluted we have,
ME 52.8M
Rand 10M
Total Earnings say 62.8M
EPS, circa 3.7c
PE of 12
SP circa 44.4c

Maybe the market placing a value of 43c pre deal wasn't too far off the mark.
There are other pros and cons of course, however food for thought.
Mav