But will the package prevent a recession?Economists are unsure...

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    But will the package prevent a recession?

    Economists are unsure if the package will ward off recession.


    Citi economist Josh Williamson said if we assumed 50 per cent of the payments and grants were spent, the Government should avoid a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth) if the RBA also cuts rates again next month.


    "It is not possible to avoid a negative first-quarter GDP growth rate, but by front-loading cash payments for wages and income support recipients from March 30, the Government is hoping that spending activity will increase by enough to avoid a second consecutive negative GDP growth result in the second quarter," he said.


    "Assuming half of the payments leak into savings … the Government should avoid this political unsavoury outcome."


    Deloitte Access Economics director Chris Richardson said the stimulus was going to be "remarkably fast" but he didn't know if it would prevent recession.

    "We don't know because we don't know how big the problem is," Mr Richardson said.


    "Thankfully a lot of this is open to scalability."


    Westpac chief economist Bill Evans warned it wouldn't be enough to prevent a recession.


    "The Government's Fiscal Stimulus Package is a bold initiative to bolster the Australian economy's defences against the damage likely to be wrought by COVID-19," Mr Evans wrote in a note to clients.


    "However, the current domestic and global environment has deteriorated more rapidly than we had expected … despite the Government's bold efforts the June quarter is still likely to show negative growth and Australia will experience a technical recession."

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-12/coronavirus-economic-stimulus-package-scott-morrison-analysis/12051500?section=business
 
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