I suspect Santos will put the Gunnedah on the back burner for...

I suspect Santos will put the Gunnedah on the back burner for three main reasons:

1. The gas is currently fairly stranded without significant infrastructure investment

2. NSW gas market is not running short while the Cooper fields are still in operation

3. Community opposition within NSW

Fast forward ten years and the situation looks very different.

1. Cooper fields continue to decline, while NSW gas requirements continue to increase with both state growth and gradual retirement of coal-fired power plants.

2. Gas price will be higher allowing shale gas to potentially become viable but shale gas will need high gas prices to be viable so the price will stay up regardless of how much shale gas comes in - high enough for Gunnedah CSG

3. GLNG, APLNG and CLNG have been operating in Qld for 5+ years and the predicted apocalypse to farming land hasn't happened, so community and media interest in the controversy will wane

4. Another 10 years of appraisal and technical work to solve the permeability and CO2 issues in the Gunnedah

5. Performance of GLNG will be known and they can make a decision on whether the Gunnedah gas is needed for GLNG or whether it can be supplied to the NSW domestic market


All in all I can see plenty of reasons why Santos might consider the Gunnedah a long-term asset, and not many reasons to risk trying to develop it immediately.