STO: Buy, Hold or Bail?

I’ve seen a lot of posts lately discussing what Santos is “really worth” - some bullish ,some sceptical - so thought I’d throw in our view based on a detailed valuation model we built back in May.

We’ve now partially exited after the recent rally, as STO is trading very close to our NAV. But curious to hear where others land on this too - especially with the take over still hanging in the balance.

You can see our full summary analysis here:
https://www.goldrockcapital.com.au/analysis-notes/when-the-market-caught-up-to-the-model-our-santos-call-explained

We had STO valued at A$7.94/share, based on field-by-field modelling through 2030. This was pre-bid - not speculation-based - and grounded in:

• 10% post-tax discount rate
• Production growing from 93 mmboe (2025) to 120 mmboe (2030)
• Conservative price outlook: Brent ~US$68–75/bbl; JKM normalising to US$8.6/mmbtu

We were long in the A$5.50–5.80range. With the stock now at A$7.80, the valuation gap has closed - and we’ve trimmed accordingly.

The A$8.89 bid? Still unclear if it sticks. We’re watching FIRB and PNG dynamics closely, and we’ll post a separate view once we’ve run the scenarios.

For now, just sharing the work behind our NAV. Not claiming we know it all - open to views and happy to discuss.

Also Not financial advice - just sharing our model outputs. DYOR.