STO Well positioned, page-351

China's expected economic rebound from its long & severe zero-covid shutdowns (which ceased December 2022) has fizzled out since April 2023: thus less energy is being used in China. This is very likely placing downward pressure on fossil fuel prices, internationally.

It appears China is likely to soon announce significant stimulus packages, to revive its "moribund" economy. This will cause international fossil fuel prices to rise, IMO probably significantly.

South China Morning Post O. Wang 17.6.23 said

"The meeting came a day after readings of headline indicators – such as industrial output, retail sales and property investment – generally fell short of market estimations, adding to signs that China’s economy stumbled last month.

The country reported better-than-expected results in the first quarter of the year as it ended three years of zero-Covid controls, but a string of data in the past two months has pointed to a loss of momentum.

Expectations are mounting that the Chinese government could unveil a stimulus package, with support for the ailing real estate sector and incentives for consumers to spend.

“We expect an imminent stimulus package to safeguard China’s recovery,” economists with Morgan Stanley said in a note on Friday.

They said the central bank’s decision tocut a number of key policy ratesthis week marked “the start of the State Council’s renewed stimulus package”, with more expected in coming weeks, including an easing in property purchase restrictions in some major cities and targeted consumption subsidies".

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3224445/chinas-state-council-fans-stimulus-hopes-economic-plan-faltering-growth