I see you are using "natural gas" as your benchmark and I know it is showing trends however many contracts particularly PNG gas uses different pricing
I have not dona model on STO but years ago had one for oilsearch that if you looked at ships loading and reviewed contracts you got a reasonable idea on volumes and pricing. What really mattered with OSH cash generation was if there was a extra shipment in a period or any unscheduled maintenance weather etc. Long term even maintenance / upgrades come out in wash and even PNG earthquakes were partially smoothed by bringing forward maintenance while production infrastructure was offline.
Can't do same with STO as not sure how reflective it is other than general benchmark price being higher or lowed. Asia area gas is different price and USA and middle east gas and also due to transport distances you can't just substitute depending on who final contracted buyer is. That shipping distance to Asia from Middle East m ( and massive distance / time saving weather avoiding efficiency) is why Middle East
Do you split your production between domestic. export , PNG ?
Does your estimate correlate reasonably well looking back at previous attempts?
STO Well positioned, page-608
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