1. The UK states it is fairly confident it will be able to avoid...

1. The UK states it is fairly confident it will be able to avoid power blackouts in the 2023/24 winter- it is again relying on public appeals & monetary incentive schemes etc. for people to not use &/or severely diminish power use during peak high power demand periods. It will have 2 coal-fired power stations, as back-up providers of baseload ,reliable power, to prevent power blackouts. (IIRC, the UK & EU cut demand by an average of c.6%, cf to pre-Invasion winter levels).

IMO, it is unclear if there will be power blackouts in the coming winter, in the UK & EU. They may need to import more gas & oil, for their power stations, -which would cause prices to rise.
Important factors, which the below link does not discuss, are:-

.the UK & EU had, luckily, their 2nd highest average winter temperatures, onrecord, for the 2022/23 winter. This greatly assisted their very large fossil fuel stockpiles (frenzied buying up to September 2022, fearing winter blackouts) to be less reduced, than would normally be expected.
This warmer winter is very unlikely to be repeated.

. the 2022 autumn in the UK & EU also had temperatures well above average, also benefiting the stockpiles.

. most climate scientists probably now believe we have probably started, in the last 2 months, an el nino (natural weather phenomenon).
They state this will cause winter temperatures, in the northern part of Europe, to be much colder than normal- if correct, this will create a much bigger demand for power, for heating. Will the fossil fuel stockpiles be sufficient?

. the UK & EU gorged themselves on cheaper Russia fossil fuels up to 5.2.23- but most of these have now been banned by the UK & EU.

. will Germany, Poland etc. continue to use vast amounts of the very high CO2 (cf NEWC 6000kcal) lignite brown coal for their power stations?
Or will they decide to import (not from Russia, obviously, due to the bans) 6000kcal?

. Russia blew up the large Kharkova hydroelectric dam in sthn Ukraine 2 weeks ago, flooding vast areas- it has been described as one of the worst disasters in Europe since WW11.
Some are also claiming Russia may sabotage Ukraine's nuclear reactor (Europes biggest) in Russian-held Zaporizhia- another disaster, which could lead to further fuel bans etc.

bbc.com 16.6.23 M. Pace said

"Discount offers for households to use less electricity at peak times will return this winter as part of plans to minimise the risk of power cuts.

National Grid ESO said it expected to have sufficient capacity to meet demand but added it would be "prudent" to maintain the energy-saving scheme...
Alongside maintaining its energy-saving scheme for households to get discounts on bills, it said it was holding discussions about having two coal power stations on standby. The amount available to the grid if required has fallen from five in 2022 to two, with two now closed down and one other unable to be called upon".

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65915346



T2. TTF Dutch gas (EU benchmark) rose 7.39% on 15.6- up 29.3% since 15.5.23; & almost double since their nadir 2 weeks ago.
Ditto, UK gas, up 7.84% on 15.6, & 39.85% since 15.5.23; & almost double since their nadir 2 weeks ago.



It appears the rises will continue- but how high?