Shane (and interested others)I was searching for one of my...

Shane (and interested others)

I was searching for one of my previous posts in reply, but couldnt find the one I wanted ... this repost from 24/5 will have to do ...
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Kingaroy 400MW can by management guidance produce an annual profit of $35mill for 25 yrs. The beauty of this project is the simplicity of just being the syngas producer to a 3rd party owner and operator of the power station, thus limiting capex obligations.

Spurious as it may be, pro-rata Pakistan 1200MW may produce annual profits of $105mill and double that for adding in a second project.

Throw in a say 1200MW and 2000MW projects in India and on the same basis produce annual profits of $280mill.

Here in Australia in WA I recently posted a link giving forward predictions of electricity demand in WA due to growth and retirement of old coal fired power stations. So add in say two 400mw projects for and annual profit of $70 mill.

Put a line inder the above operations and you have an annual profit of $595mill ... at a P/E of say 10 you have a capitalisation of $5,950,000,000 ... allowing for capital raisings of say $200mill at $0.50, $200mill at $1.00 and $200mill at $1.50 per share to assist with the above rollout and allowing for say 600mill currently issued shares/options (give or take a 100mill or so lol) and you still have a valuation on the expanded captial base of $4.46 per share!

Ok, assume I got it wrong and they needed to raise $400mill at each of $0.50, $1.00 and $1.50 per share, the expanded capital base would still have a valuation of $2.88 per share within say 5 to 10 yrs.

Put a line under the above calcs and tell me why you couldn't add say just two 500MW to 1000MW projects around the world every year for the next 20 to 30 yrs.

Put a line under the above Cougar McElectricity business and lets talk Cougar McDiesel and Cougar McFertilisers ... all the while with Cougar being the syngas supplier to 3rd party owner operator client/partners.

If there is a whiff of a chance this could happen, why would anyone sell at this stage?

(old post ends)
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Going back to base figures, a $113mil investment to upgrade the now superceded 40MW to 400MW generates an annual profit of $35mill. This is for the syngas producer model with Cougar supplying syngas to power station ownwer/operators. Cougar currently have access to about $300mill funding.

Assume the first project could be up and running in 3 yrs (2.5 yrs was mentioned in the recent presentation to Shaws) and that other similar projects could come on line each yr thereafter.

yr3 ... 1st project online, $113mill spent

yr4 ... 2nd project online, net $78mill spent ($113mill less income of $35 mill from 1st project)

yr5 ... 3rd project online, net $43mill spent ($113mill less income of $70mill from 1st and 2nd projects)

yr6 ... 4th project online, net $8mill spent ($113mill less income of $105mill from 1st, 2nd and 3rd projects).

At this point there is $58mill of the original $300mill still in the kitty and Cougar have an annual income of $140mill from 4 projects.

The earlier post (reposted above) and the above aditional comments are fictious conjecture on my behalf, but they sure convince me that a multi dollar valuation for Cougar is feasible just on a rollout of the Cougar syngas McEnergy model and ignoring anything else they may choose to do with their syngas.

Cheers
Dex