drbrooks haven't checked your reasoning, but here's mine based...

drbrooks haven't checked your reasoning, but here's mine based on a similar process:

CNE are up about 15p, with their 576M shares on issue that equates to 86.4M GBP.
FAR's interest is 15/40 times that of CNE, so about 32.4M GBP to FAR. Using $1.80 AUD for a GBP, that's about $58M to FAR. Or a bit over 2c per share!

Look at it this way - 86M GBP * 1.8 AUD/GBP /(40%) equates to this discovery being worth less than $400M AUD gross to the market.

What about the CVN discovery? That was priced at about 15 cps to CVN. About 1B shares on issue so net to CVN the discovery was worth about $150M, or about $750M gross. Now that was up to 300M barrels gross to the 10th percentile. Not sure if that is P90 or P10 equivalent in the CNE release! Whichever we're talking about $2.50 per barrel gross to the market.
Now if the CNE P90 value of 250M barrels then on the same basis this should be a $600M plus find gross. If it's the P10 equivalent, then it's 10 times as much or a $6B find!

Assuming it's the P90 equivalent, then it's $600M for a compared to CVN value vs $400M for what it's worth to CNE value.

Considering the CVN find was 46-48 API, in WA with infrastructure in place, in shallow water, vs FAN-1 with 28-41 API, in a frontier location, in deep water, the $400M gross might well be not far off the mark.

And one has to ask - how much of this discovery is already priced in?