Stock price, page-275

Why us Cop and average sell price important


If you look at my post above Post #: 72848004 I talk about COP, it is important.
My basic reasoning is that As COP and averagesales price (ASP) become close they cannot make enough to justify even a $6.00 SP at a PE of 20.
The chart below shows the ASP AU$ in orange and NdPrO Prices in Red. NdPro for Q3 is only the first 10 weeks. Prices are the average of the close on every Friday during the Q, Looking at my post above you can see I draw the conclusion that COP Will be in the Mid Au$3x range. If You look at chart below you can see that ASP is about the middle of AU$ 3X, If these cross then Lynas cannot make money no mater how many Tons they produce and sell. Even if they are Au 5.00 apart and they make 20 KT this year (very unlikly). That is still only 100M $ of profit they have 934 M shares outstanding, that means 100M / 934M =EPS of 0.11. to support a $6.00 share price that would mean a PE of 54. Even AU $100M profit would be a 66% drop in earnings YOY from 2023, which was 310M, Earnng drop of 66% are unlikely to support a PE of even 20, more likely 10.
All data in both reports is from Q reports or SMMs pricing.

We can see that so Far NdPrO has fallen faster than ASP. This is because they lose money on Ce and La when they sell it. So they are finishing less and less Ce and La Here is a chart of of Percent NdPrO per Q vs average sell price. In the last 6 Qs the % of NdPr has gone from 40% to 55% while ASP has gone from Au$ 75.00 to about $35. This shows just how much REE prices have hurt Lynas.

I believe that Q3 and Q4 ill show these patterns becoming worse.