Many think that 5.80 may be a bottom. Yet they never give any reason for thinking that. Lynas right now has a PE of 26.4 at a SP of 5.80.
Never have I seen a PE this high for a stock that has almost 2 years of declining Profits and Revenue. 2022 H2 Profits AU$ 384 M Rev 621M, 2024 H1 profits $39M, - 90%, Revenue $112M, -82%. Even if Lynas achieves the production that AL Said they would by the end of CAL 2024. And REE prices soar to 650RMB WV it is unlikely that H1 2025 will be close to H1 2023. Yes it will be substantially Beter than 2024 but that was very bad. The gloss has departed the Green sector and REE within it. So now things Like Revenue, Profits and Book Value become far more important. No longer will REE companies with small revenue and profits support PE of 50~65 Like Lynas did just 2 years ago. This may be a bottom for Revenue and Profits and they will rise from here but I think the chance they will rise sufficiently to support a AU$7 to $11.00 SP is tinny. Can anyone tell me what they See for H2 2024, and H1 &H2 2025 revenue and profit and why? I know many are predicting major rebound in EVs some are even using PHEVs recent growth to say rebound is close. Perm magnets in motors are proportional to Horse Power or motor KW. Look at power of EVs and compare to PHEVs. Many talk like it is just a little less it is usually about 25% or even less. On trucks it is usually closer to 50% (because they down size the ICE motor ) but truck PHEVs are not selling well. I do not include SUVs like RAV4 with trucks. The only AC units that use variable speed motors are very high end home cental AC units and most commercial cental units. All window and other units use on and off induction motors with no perm magnets. What do you see in this article that says this will help the REE market? Yes Lynas said AC was a growing area but like many things Lynas says this is based on some facts but they then count on people extrapolating to other things that are not true. You say SP will go up Monday. If the SP goes above $6.50 for even an hour I will say you had a good point.
You say i am holding back Us $20K to buy Lynas I do not want to hold too many stocks so I have a minimum purchase level. Your number is not close to that at all. You do this all the time. When you do not know something you just make up something that sound good to you. It does not bother me at all when you do it to me, but when you do it with numbers to show Why Lynas will grow that misleads others.
Can you answer me a couple of things you say "
My hold is 2025/26 when Adamis says next supply imbalance will occur and in meantime with robotics
" lets assume this is absolutly correct why would you buy at 5.80 and hold 15 to 30 more months if the SP has a good chance of dropping to $4.00 or lower in the next 6 to 12 months. Makes no sense to me how does it make sense to you? You seem to think your buy when SP was over $10 was correct, do you still think that? Can you give some hard facts why anyone should buy in next 6 months? I sincerely doubt it. Because you cannot, You will not address any of these questions because you are clueless.
(20min delay)
