Yes stocks often decouple from the fundamentals . Many people like to believe a stock has a new pardine. For example Dot com companies were supposed to decouple because they did not need brick and mortar. Banks by bundling worthless loan portfolios with good ones chang the worthless into gold, and therefore creating unlimited wealth. These both eventually proved to be untrue.
The green stocks were supposed to be fueled by unlimited growth. Many put out charts that showed compounded growth for many years which has never happened with anything. The fact is the only thing that can grow a company is earnings Early in a companies existence there are many things that can Jump start the company. The 3 biggest are Venture capital, Selling stock, Borrowing money, Sooner or later the company has to pay for its own growth. If you know of anything else, please tell me what and how, I need to understand. Lynas has still not paid the stock holders back much at all. Note groth of earnings is a great payback dividends are not needed. I am the only person who has worked hard to understand what earning may look like in the next year. Looking at chart below NC committed to REE in 2008 ~ 2009 since then Lynas has earned AUD 135 M Divide 935M shares is $0.14 a share. AL did much better since she took over $927M about $1.00 a share.
I will admit this is JMO and recently I have been very accurate on predicting earnings, always high. I have been terrible on predicting SP. Many on this board say they are long term holders. They should read some books not short term internet articles about what is important for long term holders.
JMO This is not an estimate I will do one after SAR but I doubt 2025 profits will be over AUD150M. The stock price will start reflecting this sooner or later. The only hope for Lynas profits is for NdPrO to soar well over 850 RMB WV in a couple of months. If I see even a 30% possibility of that I will put 10% of my portfolio in Lynas. The price increase will be amazing. Well worth the risk. Then future earning will look fantastic and people will think of Lynas stock being worth a lot more. Early indication is a solid pick up in EV sales They are still growing but only by about 2% and with the inventory back up I think they will start declining in next few months. A pick up in Wind power The key to this in US is some large grid problems have to be solved, An actual pick up in perm motor production. Sorry, but coming out with a new robot a year or two from now just does not cut it. There has to be sales of the motors in 2025.
Thank you just reread your post carefully. First I never predicted below $1.00 a share price even when Price went below $1.00 I thought that was extreme. Again you say I am backward looking, I am not. No one else has done the research to predict SAR earnings and take a wild guess at AR earnings. I think that is forward looking what is your guess for Q1 revenue? Mine is AUD 140 M. My guess of SAR EPS is 4 to 5.5 cents. What is yours? My guess for AR EPS is less than $0.20 This will not raise stock price. Like many up-rampers on this board you constantly repeat what you think is true. You still have not looked at what I did and given any reasons why you think I am wrong. You have not given any thing to back up your opinions. If you do not know enough to guess at what future may be how do you have any idea what to do.
In future please help all people on this board by replying to the post you are talking about by clicking on reply or given post number. If you think your reply is important, would you not want people to know what you are talking about? You do not even state clearly you are replying to CJ but I figured it out. Still not sure which post(s) you are replying to.
LYC Price at posting:
$7.71 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)