I moved money to a dividend stock albeit not my main criteria. It is a slow steady growth stock that doesnt get belted 3-5 % when the broad ASX sector drops 0.5 - 1%. Im finding that difficult now and Lynas dependence on 30% sales to China for its balance sheet bothers me. I see that as risk now. Ive made huge money on LYC but that doesnt mean I want to sit at the same share price band, 6-7.5$ for the next five years. Despite LYC great capacity increase in KAL and Kuantan upgrade its all about ndpr prices and bottom line, isnt it. We have to produce far more for the same cabbage, right. As for PR from Lynas, if we didnt have hotcopper with Mikaj, Penny, weehawken, pout, etc, we would know near nothing apart from QR, AGM about Lynas. Media reports have biases. 2025 is my big decision line in the sand. What happens in global affairs, which really determines ndpr prices, is my criteria how I assess Lynas. How KAL goes, Texas Mt Weld upgrade is secondary to me whilst the price of RE is not looking good, is it. There for sure is price manipulation but at these prices its in the interests of the Western world to do nothing about it and buy cheap whilst they can. Whilst this gives no incentive for emerging RE suppliers to enter the market due to high capital costs. Thats a given. Lynas will continue to be squeezed this year. The Chinese have all the time in the world. I read somewhere China have expanded their lanthanide feed now from Africa so they arent short of it.. They learnt from their hundred years of humility and intend on keeping dominance over the west.. They are in the drivers seat now and I need to look at my exposure to RE industries. Diversification at these Ndpr prices IMO is bs and if it isnt ,apart from Lynas , its taking the other players, including Texas, forever to get up and running, if they ever intend to , at these ndpr prices.
Also IMO the market is being sold a pup being told that the west plans on taking control of RE prices to get a better price. Information like this is bothering me too. Are the Japanese paying the present 430000yuan for ndpr prices or are they doing Lynas a favor and paying more under the JARE agreement. My point. If Japan are paying yuan prices on ndpr China is ruling the roost. Isnt it. and I dont know that answer yet anyhow since information is so scarce. Its in every RE customer interests to buy at 430000 yuan yet detrimental for Lynas bottom line. Even Volkswagen are cosying to China to save their own bacon and theyre not the only ones. They are suffering with growing Chinese EV sales in Europe. Nothing but direct hostilities with China will stop these relationships and IMO I think we will be living with current prices for some time. The Taiwan geopolitics will see some changes. What changes. Who knows. But IMO these thoughts are far more important to me now than Lynas increased capacity . China are playing hard ball now.
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