Ok, so the new tax is in place no matter what, but the positive listers will be exempt from paying for it for upto a year if the delay is approved, (which you think it will be) in order for everyone to get up to speed.
From memory, the positive listers are actual imported items rather than companies, but we know that registered IF is on it as well as wine and pet food. Vitamins is a bit more iffy, and might be the reason that BKL got hit today.
this was an excerpt from an AFR article in April:
The Australian government is hoping China's new e-commerce laws will be watered down in the coming weeks, as the country's powerful online retailers lobby for the inclusion of more foreign food products.
In the meantime, confusion continues as Australian vitamin, infant formula and dairy companies scramble to determine how the changes will affect them.
Wine and pet food companies look to be among the few winners from the changes, as they are included on the so-called "positive list" for the first time.
Inclusion on the list allows foreign products to be imported more easily via one of the country's 13 free-trade zones and then sold on cross-border e-commerce platforms such as T-mall or JD.com.
"These laws are going to look very different in two weeks' time and different again in a month's time," said a senior Australian trade official, who asked not to be named.
Natalie Zhu, from import company Ajyaguru, which handles a number of Australian brands, said a period of intense lobbying lay ahead as companies and online retailers sought to have products included on the list.
"Everyone is lobbying hard," she said via phone.
"We are hoping the government will release more information in two or three days."
Uncertainly around the new laws has seen more than $800 million wiped off the combined market value of China-focused stocks Blackmores, Bellamy's and A2 Milk in the past three days.
Trade mission
The confusion comes at an awkward time for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who is leading a 1000 person delegation to China this week to promote trade and investment links.
The changes have also overshadowed the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement, which the Coalition government has cited as a key achievement of its first term.
The "positive list", which runs to 23 pages, includes wine and pet food for the first time, according to Ms Zhu, but does not include long-life milk.
This saw China's biggest online platform, Tmall, stop selling Murray Goulburn's long-life milk products on Monday.
The managing director of Murray Goulburn, Gary Helou, said he understood why Beijing had tightened the regulation around imported goods coming through the free-trade zones.
"There has been rampant growth … and you'd expect the regulators to put some checks and balances into it, so that piece is not a surprise," he said via phone.
"What we are seeking, though, is clarity on exactly what that list has on it, and should have on it."
Mr Helou said he didn't expect the changes to "materially" hit Murray Goulburn's overall sales into China.
It is expected to revert to the direct shipping of goods, which is possible for the company as its products are registered in China. The situation is not so simple for vitamin and infant formula companies. While they are included on the positive list the guidelines are vague. While infant formula is on the list, it says these products must be "registered" in China, but does not give further details on what exactly this means in terms of food safety and other regulations. The explanation around vitamins is more extensive, but only runs to nine product categories. These appear to be basic items such as "unblended vitamin A".
Blackmores chief executive Christine Holgate said shipments of the company's products were still being processed in China and she did not expect that to change.
She said Blackmores had approval for all the main products it sold in China and the cross-border e-commerce platform represented only 3 per cent of the company's overall sales.
"There are many routes to the Chinese market. The [cross-border e-commerce route] is an important route and a route that is growing and I don't want to undervalue it," she said.
For Blackmores the issue is the time it takes to have new products registered with authorities in China. It currently has 10 of its main products registered.
Registration process
Industry insiders say it can cost $200,000 per item to have new products registered and take two to three years.
"They need very serious import permissions. If they don't have import permission they can't get into the bonded area," said Richard Zhang, founder and chief executive of Rex Group, which specialises in importing Australian goods through Chinese cross-border warehouses. "That's a serious matter."
Inclusion on the positive list allows companies to import products into China via free-trade zones, which are logistically easier and cheaper than traditional import channels.
Products are then sold through cross-border e-commerce sites, usually based in Hong Kong.
The other main advantage of importing products via this route is that they don't always require Chinese registration or food labelling, unlike those sold in supermarkets.
On April 8, China changed the tax treatment for this so-called "cross-border channel", which is likely to see prices rise on food products by about 12 per cent.
It also put out a list for the first time of what products could come into the free-trade zones.
