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stillade

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26/05/16

00:21

Post #: 17868542
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Originally posted by asb83 ↑

I'd be surprised if there wasn't a trading update next month. My reasons below:

FY16 revenue forecast: $240-260M.
1HY16: $105M.
2HY16: $135-155M (forecast)

2HY16 forecast is a 29-48% increase on 1HY16 revenue. With the 20-30% formula price increase late last year, 2HY16 revenue is already ~$126-136M. BAL would almost meet the lower end of 2HY16 forecast on the price increase alone even with no growth whatsoever.

For BAL to meet the upper end of forecast (i.e. $155M), it would only need to increase sales by between 13-23% (13% assumes 30% formula price increase; 23% assumes 20% formula price increase).

BAL said in late 1HY16 that they had "ramp[ed] up supplies of organic formula". You would think that this ramp up would be more than 20%.

For BAL to surpass the upper end of their forecast by 10% and therefore be obliged to release a trading update (i.e. 2HY16 $170M), it would need to increase on 1HY16 sales by between 25-35% (25% assumes 30% formula price increase; 35% assumes 20% price increase).

With increased supply, BAL is still selling everything it is producing. They are now selling tins of BAL with manufacture date of 21/04/2016! That's effectively saying they have sold everything they have produced for the first 4 months of 2HY16.

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Great work asb83. Lots of logic behind those assumptions. Top post. Thx

BAL Price at posting: $11.02 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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