Hi nazzysmithI don't mind sharing my research.The figures I gave...

Hi nazzysmith

I don't mind sharing my research.

The figures I gave was not a prediction of the SP but just the risked and unrisked valuation of Artemis using the formula provided by MEO/RPS and comparing that to the StockAnalysis VPS of CUE.

I am not painting a rosy picture just stating the facts. It is up to the individual how these facts are interpreted. Along with the facts about company we must take into account the outside influences that affect the SP.

Of course the SP of MEO will fall should A#1 be a duster. How much it will fall will depend a number of factors influencing the momentum of the SP leading up to the drill results. These factors include:

how the market receives the final regulatory approvals and the injection of US$31.5m plus 7.5m back costs. This may already be factored in to the SP but lets look at the figures. MEO will then have a cash VPS of ~15cps calculated as follows:-

Cash on hand @ 31 June was AU$36m plus ~3.4m (Doravale) less AU$1.4m (guesstimate) ongoing costs = AU$38m.

Outgoings from the US$39m from PBR will be US$7m to MOG for 5% 360-P and US$1m to Gascorp for 15% 361-P which will leave 39-8 = 31 div .89fx = AU$34.5m.

So cash VPS is (38+34.5)/466.2m = 0.155cps.

the results of the Gaffney Cline resource certification of both Blackwood and Heron using the Schlumberger report findings of regional well and seismic data along with MEO's technical work.

This will give us a resource estimate for the gas at Blackwood and Heron in NT-P68 which may give additional value to the company.

Depending on the NTP/68 resource data, the farmout of should be in process. According to the MEO timeline on P14 of the August 2010 Investor update

we can see it is anticipated that the data room will be soon be open with negotiations due to commence about the time of the A#1 spud in November.

MEO have indicated that they are evaluating and pursuing new opportunities. It will be great if they can find something that is close to generating an income which is what we need to add SH value.

There are other possible agreements, such as a gas feed and partnership with the Tassie Shoal projects, which may interest some institutional investors.

All the above points will affect the SP but also the stock does have quite a number of locked in, LT holders. Traditionally quite a few will reduce or sell all their stock between now, spud and drill results.

It is all a matter of an individuals entry and exit point whether or not we lose money. The true art of trading is to research the stock, be aware of the influences that affect the stock and don't become emotionally involved.

The Company could invest their $70m in chickens and lose them all to bird flu, Artemis could be a duster, the data for NTP/68 could be a disaster and Tassie shoal could sink but I will still go out fishing and enjoy life.

No matter how many possible scenarios are put forward MEO is still a speculative stock and, as such, people can lose money. People lose money every day right across the market. That is why I said to keep an eye on our investment and stay in control by locking in our profits. We shouldnt let the market lock us in unless we are sure of the fundamentals.

If we fear MEO is likely to be a duster and the SP may fall back to 15c or lower, then why are we holding the shares and having this debate? Why do we hold shares in any stock as there is always a risk involved. We all know the risk but the research we share and discuss is to reduce those risks I thought.

And in answer to the cryptic message on another MEO thread my eyes are wide open as I research my investments and trade/hold them as I see fit. I am quite comfortable with my decisions and, apart from adding the long term buy sentiment with my posts, have never advised anyone to buy, sell or hold. I only share my research to allay any misinterpretation that sometimes presents itself in the MEO forum. It is not my intention to influence others. #:->

It looks like there is some more downward pressure is on the SP again. Soon it will be time for me to top up again as I think MEO is undervalued at these prices.

But that is only my opinion. It is for others to decide for themselves what they are comfortable with.

#:>))