stop wasting your time angers, page-31

re: share price 80c by xmas Nicely said danr!

NCB give Tullow's Ugandan interest a NAV of 80P ! ... That in itself comes to a A$1.29 billion price tag ignoring everything else!

Cheers,
xmagx

Tullow

• Shares on Issue: 650,278,792

• Our analysis: We are increasing earnings forecasts by 5% in 2006 and 9% in 2007, and raising target price from 430p to 450p.

• The increases are predominantly due to the lower tax rates on African production mainly in Gabon, where Tullow is able to combine licences and pay the lowest effective rate in the country. Tullow has reduced forward tax guidance to 36-38% for the group (adjusted for exploration expenses) from previous 41-42%. This improves not only forward earnings but also the Net Present Value per barrel on African reserves, used to drive the target price.

• Performance of Tullow shares in the near term will also be impacted by results from the Kingfisher well in Uganda, which spudded in Mid-August and is scheduled for two to three months. Kingfisher is deeper than previous wells but targets the potential for a wider pay zone which would significantly raise expectations on reserves. However, this is high risk / high reward – internally, Tullow give it a 20% probability of success (but previous wells were little more than this and produced three back-to-back successes). Disappointment would impact the shares but by no means mean the end of the campaign. Uganda contributes 80p to the NAV of 450p.

• Our conclusion. We recommend investors to continue to build positions ahead of Kingfisher results expected in November, but not complete full positions until after then. Success would produce an immediate lift in the share price.

• Target price: GBP 450.00.

http://ftp.ncb.ie/equities/UKEquitiesMMN090706.pdf