If any metal can recover, tin canPURE SPECULATION: Robin Bromby...

If any metal can recover, tin can
PURE SPECULATION: Robin Bromby | February 16, 2009

Article from: The Australian

"WE think tin will be one of the first metals to recover once markets stabilise," says Sydney-based Resource Capital Research.

Great. The problem is that tiny matter -- markets stabilising. There is some pretty dreadful news about. The 15-nation Eurozone watched its economy contract 1.5 per cent in the December quarter. Last week Morgan Stanley's Asian chief, Stephen Roach, told Asian central bankers they were in trouble with China at a standstill, Japan getting "clobbered" (his word) and problems for Asia's exporters. As Bloomberg reported, Singapore's state-owned investment arm Temasek Holdings lost the equivalent of Sri Lanka's entire GDP in the eight months to November 30.

But Resource Capital Research does have a point. Unlike most of the other base metals, there is no growing tin surplus. Inventories held at the London Metal Exchange now sit at 8820 tonnes, against a 52-week high of 11,430 tonnes. The RCR case is that a rebound in Chinese demand, coupled with the closing of mines in Indonesia, could trigger supply shortages.

The various Australian stock exchanges have been home to many tin companies over the years -- a lot seem to have gone out of existence in the 1930s and 1950s and there are not many people who would remember companies such as Tin & Gold Mines and Tin Bentong. But now the tin component of the ASX could be getting some critical mass, there being 15 companies that have a substantial tin interest. The biggest player is Metals X (MLX) with its Renison mine. Gippsland (GIP) has advanced to a bankable feasibility study at its Egyptian tantalum-tin project. North Queensland Metals (NQM) has gold revenue to finance its tin projects, while those classed as in the advanced exploration stage by RCR are Consolidated Tin Mines (CSD), Kasbah Resources (KAS) (with a potentially world-class deposit in Morocco), Venture Minerals (VMS) (with Australia's third largest resource in Tasmania) and China-controlled YTC Resources (YTC). The last mentioned company has just added further ground near Glen Innes in NSW. Outback Metals (OUM) is looking for production next year at Mt Wells in the Northern Territory.