current holder but looking to exit fast if it returns south....seen this a "few" times to say the least.
facts:
1. profit downgrades
2. poor integration - teething problems (subjects the above to further downside risks)
3. "debt" in the picture/media
4. Suitor rumour/conjecture
seen this wayyyy to many times. funny how its the same formula...
Broker data becomes critical to ascertain one of two outcomes:
a) instos have bailed. if they are re-entering, they "know something"...if not...im afraid to say it,
b) pump before the cap raise....
so much smoke n mirrors is fed into the media to drive the price up to limit dilution and yield a better price/justify a lower cost via the nominated underwriter. They need to buy time to sort whateva out, and the best mechanism is cap raise.
if not, and instos "know" something....this could run. I don't want the rug pulled out with yet another cap raise by a distressed company and board seeking to ensure their pay packets...which will send this back to $2 and another bottom of the drawer "investment".
my litmus is the 10% rule. it dropped to $2.40-$2.50, if it smashes $2.75 and beyond (continues to climb) then all is well. if it hovers at the $2.70 mark with a "ceiling" for a week or two...time to bail (cap raise on the way).
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