I feel that anyone who truly 'knows what they are doing', that...

I feel that anyone who truly 'knows what they are doing', that is, has deep enough pockets to actually do the level of research that we have done on this, wouldn't bother with this as they can't throw enough money at this arbitrage play.

Smaller players where CZA is more liquid (ie. English) probably don't even realise they have the potential to buy into UNV and accept the takeover... Or even if they could, they would probably only be offered the 25 cent offer, not the 20 cent plus 1 CZA.

I feel the level of arbitrage gains available says nothing about the likelihood of the takeover going through.

The takeover going through is more contingent on the three main players.

CZA, UNV and the chinese consortium funding CZA.

We've got CZA and UNV having regular board meetings with both groups unanimously accepting the takeover... So there is two huge ticks for increased likelihood of completion.

We've got regulatory approvals in the appropriate regions (from what I understand)

AND now we have MOU regarding the funding required to get this finished.

As such, likelihood of this deal completing is extremely high. If someone is willing to give me a 30-50% arbitrage on what I feel is a 99-99.9% chance of success, I'll take it.