AUZ (ASX) stress levels

Originally posted by boc1986 ↑

The following is all IMO
Being a long term holder, and believing in the long term prospect helps me to sit back and relax, as I have done my due diligence with a lot of care.
During the sellout over the last few weeks..Millions have been bought by holders (Who now won't want to be selling for a loss)..these buyers will help form a very solid SP base going forward, as the percentage of holders with a higher buying price increases in comparison to those for exaple who bought last year at very low prices. This is the silver lining, and a welcome development from a long term SP perspective.
Most of the weak hands (and a majority of people booking profits or having stop losses hit have more or less disappeared now ).
So looking all set for a swift climb over the next few months with pending news.
From my conversation with Sofia, the demo plant's primary purpose was to fast track the actual implementation of the actual full scale plant with the learnings of the demo.
According to her, the plant is producing standard battery grade Nickel and Cobalt already. However, SKI requires a slightly different chemical composition from the one produced, so the engineers are busy tweaking and fine tuning the process to achieve the perfect product. (This a very normal scenario for most producers I guess).
So, this is merely a matter of time IMO before that is achieved..also the quantity of samples required is large for the size of the demo plant's capacity, so more time will be needed once chemistry is sorted out.
However, IMO SKI has full confidence that the right spec product will be produced, and they would have done their due diligence using experts in this field. This is the very reason why, delivery of samples to 100% specs within any specific time is not a requirement under the agreement. There is time to tweak things to meet specs, and it is being continuously worked on.
I had seen that video a long time back, and it is an old one prior to having Sofia on board.
Sofia told me that they are actively considering various options of communicating and promoting AUZ on various forums like Twitter, given the very high percentage of retail holders.
Expect the upcoming presentation to investors to be very slick, as all presentations will be professionally vetted prior to release.
The latest quarterly activities report was a definite improvement over prior releases.

IMO : Expected Rough Market Valuation: ( Back of the envelope VERY conservative calculation):

Say SCONI: 70% of CLQ = 900*.7 = $630Million
Say Flemington : another 70% of CLQ = $630Million (Once updated JORC established probably early 2019)
Thackeringa : I am IGNORING to be very conservative

This gives us an expected market cap of $630 million x 2 = $1.6 Billion by say Q2 2019 latest.

Say capital raising dilution is 40% ( being conservative)

Fully diluted Market cap would be $1.6$Billion x 60% = $756 Million.
Today's market cap is $206 Million.

So..expected upside from today's SP level is $756Mill/$206Mill = 3.66 times.
So to conclude, my expected SP latest by Q2 2019 = 3.66 x 7.6c = 28 cents using very conservative (and crude methods) ..ofcourse all things being equal.

Please bear in mind that this is all my own opinion (and I do see things with rose coloured glasses).
Time to have some wine. Cheers!
GLTA

Expand

Boc,
Love ya work.
But !
1.6 bil x 60% is 960mil.
So we have a multiplier of 4.66.
35c per share.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
24	5344274	0.9¢

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5344274

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.0¢	441319	3

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441319

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	49602	0.010
25	5400274	0.009
30	13267000	0.008
38	23942134	0.007
18	6275551	0.006

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49602

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5400274

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13267000

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23942134

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6275551

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.011	8769099	26
0.012	17431214	15
0.013	2605454	9
0.014	3383092	9
0.015	1146518	8

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8769099

0.012

17431214

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2605454

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3383092

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1146518

(20min delay)
Last 1.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $15.38M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
1.0¢	1.1¢	1.0¢	$16.46K	1.636M

Boc, Love ya work. But ! 1.6 bil x 60% is 960mil. So we have a...

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