I have compiled a spreadsheet and slashed 2010/11 EBITDA forecasts by between 15-20% from my "normal" figures and then also slashed the EBITDA multiple on all assets other than DBCT, NGPL and Powerco to 7. I have cut DBCT, NGPL and Powerco multiples by 10%. That's a savage cut for growth assets. The following are the distressed EV's for each asset: DBCT 2.7Bn NGPL 2.4Bn Powerco 817M IEG 672M CSC 140M WestNet Rail 665M Alinta 1.316Bn Euroports 609M
Plug these numbers into the spreadsheet and take away all debt and I come up with a distressed BBI valuation of 4c per security. Now this also assumes no further dilution to BBI through SPARCS, BEPPA or some sort of re-structure. So, in a WORST case scenario WITH further dilution, BBI could well be close to worthless. You can see that is imperative DBCT sells for AT LEAST $2.7Bn. I'm hoping for closer to $3Bn as I would for NGPL if it were sold.
BBI Price at posting:
7.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held