HUB24 is a great platform. It is a well run company. I have watched it for years but not bought in. The share price has just about always defied logic or analysis.
I thought years ago that when it got to $20 billion of fua it may start to be profitable enough to justify its $10 plus price. Although there were risks due to ongoing development costs, margin squeeze and deals with licensees to get large lumps of fua.
I look now and see that even with expectations of growth I would want to be seeing ebitda of around $75m, a tripling of ebitda. Looking at direct costs it seems this would require platform revenue to almost double which would would increase platform profit by the necessary amount. This assumes that the other money losing parts of the business don’t lose more and that margins don’t reduce. But they will.
This means you will be looking at close $40 billion of fua for a company that at current price will be around 20 times npat if debt is kept down. It gets harder to grow at $5 billion fua per year as outflows tend to be 10% plus not matter how good you are. It could take 6 years to reach $40 billion and have a company returning 5%.Can current holders explain how they see the company justifying the current price. Clearly many do and there are buyers out there. But at a value of approx 7.5% of fua, this is just now staggering. This represents 25 times 30 bps which would in theory be the marginal profit before tax of revenue from each dollar on platform. This assumes all costs have been recovered and there is no cost of adding funds.
Who has worked out what and how this can be achieved? I reckon the business is now priced to be a $50 billion platform.
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- Stretched valuation for a great business.
HUB
hub24 limited
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$106.67

Can current holders explain how they see the company justifying...
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Last
$106.67 |
Change
-2.180(2.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $8.658B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$108.34 | $108.48 | $105.90 | $27.43M | 257.4K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 93 | $106.39 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$106.67 | 100 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 47 | 105.900 |
1 | 66 | 105.400 |
4 | 406 | 105.000 |
1 | 5 | 104.000 |
2 | 296 | 103.500 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
108.000 | 100 | 1 |
108.500 | 30 | 1 |
109.300 | 300 | 1 |
110.000 | 3800 | 3 |
110.520 | 400 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.12pm 08/08/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
HUB (ASX) Chart |