Here is a perfect example of doing your own due diligence which is difficult to do for anyone who doesn't have a background in geoscience.
The image depicts a seismic dip line across FAR's Soloo prospect. FAR is using this line to promote the upcoming Gambian well. It does so by highlighting three target horizons (Bambo 186, Soloo 4000, Soloo 4300)
The yellow shaded areas are there to draw your eyes towards the identified structures. It gives an illusion of three robust closures .
However, let's look at it in more detail. Do not get "fooled" by the yellow shaded areas. Your eyes will be naturally drawn to it.
A robust 4 way closure or anticline looks on seismic like the picture below. The seismic reflectors dip into all 4 directions. No faults or unconformities are needed to create a closure.
Let's look at FAR's seismic image in more detail.
At the lowest target the Soloo 4300 sands, one can clearly see that the trap is set up by an unconformity. The reflectors within the yellow shaded area I marked in green clearly are cut of by the unconformity. They do not roll over as they do in the picture above. This becomes a subcrop play. It is way riskier than a 4 way closure. In our example we can seen that the overlying strata which makes up the Soloo 4000 reservoir onlaps onto the Soloo 4300 horizon (blue winglets). That setup poses a significant seal risk!
The overlying Soloo 4000 reservoir closure appears to be more robust and rollover is evident to the east and west.
The Bambo 186 structure also appears to be present but is of a much lower relief. In addition, it poses a significant seal risk as it is overlain by a massive carbonate platform!
Zooming out, one can also see the heterogeneity in the overlying strata (purple circle). This can cause a pull up at the underlying reservoir targets. Look at the red horizon below the "Soloo" text box. There is no rollover to the west. Seismic is in time. Calculated velocities will convert it into depth. It wont take much to make the inferred closures at S 4300, 4000 and S186 look like the one below the Soloo text box.
Again, anyone trying to tell you where the oil has migrated to should not be listened to.
This time around you have an alternative interpretation and it is up to you whether you think the COS is ~15% or 50%.
I need to mention something. A high COS can be easily fabricated by adding more reservoir targets. All you are saying is that you have a x% chance that one of the many targets will bear hydrocarbons. However, one target by itself won't be commercial. This is what FAR did at Samo. They added them up for promotional reasons.
So, don't blame the geos and invest / speculate only what you can afford to loose.
(20min delay)
