@sjbomber, HC won't let me post when I reply to your post. So I'm tagging you instead
I would haphazardly guess it will be somewhere between the two figures without modelling it. Some further thoughts since my post...
* We know it will cost c.90mn to build that initial 40TJ/d plant for SE Phase 1. There will be quite a few components which are fixed sunk cost regardless of size of plants, including the connecting pipelines into the sales pipeline. What we don't know is the required capex spend per 40TJ/d of additional processing capacity.
* Given the current spot is around 10/GJ and netback is about 21/GJ, it is quite obvious that the spread between the two will be straight bottom line profit. What we can only roughly forecast is what the future spot price curve looks like given the lack of a futures market, or what the current VWAP looks like. Based on my understanding, the current reported spot price only represents 1% of the total sales volume, so it's not a true reflection of market price.
* We also don't have the exact pricing of our signed contracted sales to WES, STO, AGL and S32. What we do know is that we have agreed to supply:
WES CSBP - 25TJ/d from WE up to 100PJ over 11 years (c.9PJ/yr). Given this was signed in 2019, I'd assume the agreed price will be 4/GJ at best. Is there a break clause or room for renegotiation? Break fee is 50% of the 5mn CSBP paid for the option. Even if they can legally break it, I'd assume they would want to maintain that relationship and try to renegotiate first.
STO - 20TJ/d (plus any "as available" - whatever that means) from Walyering up to 36.5PJ over 5 years (c.7PJ/yr). Given this was only signed this year, one would hope they managed to get at least 6/GJ. Condensate sale is linked to Brent, so will be about 75/barrel or thereabouts.
S32 - 35.5PJ from SE over 5 years (c.7PJ/yr). Given this was only signed recently, one would hope they managed to get at least 7/GJ.
AGL - 5.475PJ from SE over 3 years (c.1.8PJ/yr). Given this was only signed recently, one would hope they managed to get at least 7/GJ.
So all up, we have contracted a total of 160PJ at a rate of around 24PJ/yr or 66TJ/d. These sales will be classified as domestic gas sales.
If the govt lifts the export ban and enforces a 50% reservation policy to keep in line with what was issued for Waitsia JV, we would be able to produce 132TJ/d and export 66TJ/d to the LNG market while fulfilling the 50% reservation policy.
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(20min delay)