re: idea of uranium Is anybody has ideas of which share are...

re: idea of uranium Is anybody has ideas of which share are particular good or good petential in uranium development.

Thanks


China's steel sector still red hot

CISA predicts China will produce 277 million tons of steel products this year, slightly over one quater of world output. India: 38.7 million tons.

IRON ORE

Of all the minerals that Australia exports, iron ore has seen the most dramatic 12-months with a massive 71.5% price hike last year gained by BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto on the back of the rise gained with Japanese customers by the world's third player in sea traded iron ore, CVRD of Brazil.

The Japanese were obviously intent on sewing up supply against the burgeoning Chinese demand. The Chinese have naturally called foul but they do not have the experience of negotiating in a free capitalist market and their hopes of winding back the price this year are doomed.

Instead, analysts believe that another rise of 10-20% is possible for next year, especially for the Australian producers who have a freight rate advantage against the Brazilians that is not reflected in landed prices in China.

It is rumoured that the Chinese will follow the Japanese line, by presenting a unified negotiating face against the three big iron ore suppliers.

That worked when supply was fragmented but now that, for example, Rio Tinto has absorbed North Ltd, this will not work today.

Neither will the former Japanese strategy of directly investing in projects. This enabled them, at board meeting, to request the finest financial detail so that they could know exactly the margins the miner was making.

So what do the analysts say? ABARE, in its most recently released report, says that sea borne trade in iron ore is forecast to rise by over 7% in 2006 to 699Mt.

Australian exports are expected to rise by 35Mt to 280Mt in 2006, and then there is the $3000m investment now committed by both BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto for mine development, rail capacity increases and port development which will give even further export capacity, if is needed (China now has a policy of rolling back many of its huge number of smaller steel producers).

Another forecaster, AME Mineral Economics, reflects on the new iron ore mining projects being undertaken in countries as diverse as Brazil, India, and even Sweden, with “niche” players like Australia’s Portman Mining, able to strike deals with steel makers wanting to undermine the dominance of the Big Three.

AME is forecasting that by 2010 world iron ore consumption will reach 1,760,000Mtpa, growing at a compound rate of 4.5%.

It is not releasing publicly its pricing forecasts, but Access Economics is prepared to do so. It says lump iron ore will fall from an increased US$85.14/t next year to US$77.68/t in 2008. It says Iron ore fines will rise from US$62.62/t this year and fall to US$60.57/t in 2008.

Source: Metals Outlook 2006
By Mike Syddell