Gma told us in the annual results call that they were waiting for the covid related support programs (ie. job keeper and loan deferrals) to end. GMA's view was that these programs had delayed the usual claims pattern and that now the covid relief programs have ended they would see the claims (that they reserved for) flow through .
I believe all the data shows that there is not some cliff from job keeper or loan deferrals ending. any impact is very muted. and to the extent there are claims they are into a very strong rising house market. the claims should be very small. the reserves were excessive and therefore there is a windfall waiting to be returned .
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