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$1.78 race oncology ltd

STRONG SELL/ 50% downside potential, page-16

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wombat777

11,249 Posts.

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08/12/20

08:01

Post #: 49409008
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Originally posted by BlueChipper1986 ↑

wombat you get a lot of likes and you have an obligation to not speak so blithely.

there is no way that the trials will be able to complete in 2 or 3 years. That is not possible. Even if it was possible, it takes at least 12 months from when the phase 3 trials finish until approvals may occur.

further optional buyouts in phase 1 and 2 are again not correct. Most buyouts occur at commencement of Phase 3 trials, or at least when the design of phase 3 is formalised.

Buyouts at phase 1 are very rare.

a lot of investors on RAC will believe that commercialisation and revenues is 2 or 3 years away and that is not true.

look at PAR, MSB etc. It will be around 12-15 years from the first patient was dosed before meaningful revenue.

IMO RAC is at least 5 years from proper revenues. It may re-rate in advance but a MC of $230mil is quite high for a company so early.

look at PAR. It’s MC is $500mil and it’s about to go into a global P3 trial in Europe and US for OA - an industry worth circa $15bn in estimated revenue for PAR. It is still 4 years away from finishing its P3 trial. that’s a good indication of where RAC could be when it starts it’s P3 trials. It shows at the moment, it is overvalued.

Expand

RAC’s primary strategy is to achieve a takeover transaction or partnership ( not revenues ).

In buyout scenarios the revenues occur after Big Pharma has taken ownership of a drug.

A good example is the AMGEN buyout of Micromet. Transaction was in January 2012.

https://investors.amgen.com/news-releases/news-release-details/amgen-acquire-micromet

The revenues to AMGEN started 3 years later.

RAC Price at posting: $2.13 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $1.78		Change -0.040(2.20%)		Mkt cap ! $302.5M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.81	$1.82	$1.76	$132.8K	74.40K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	170	$1.77

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.78	2	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	170	1.765
2	4000	1.755
3	12714	1.750
1	3000	1.740
1	1405	1.720

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.775	2	1
1.780	3781	1
1.820	2315	1
1.830	7500	1
1.840	1000	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 27/09/2024 (20 minute delay)

RAC (ASX) Chart

STRONG SELL/ 50% downside potential, page-16

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STRONG SELL/ 50% downside potential, page-16

Top Stories

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