Strong, page-217

I can not say you are wrong. In fact Malaysian policies delayed many thing and caused Lynas to take on more debt than they would have other wise. However to blame Malaysia for everything is just not a complete answer. There are many other factors involved.

To talk SP is an error you have to use Market cap. So market Cap in AUD for MP 7.9 B. Lynas 5 B still totally unfair to Lynas but not nearly bad as stock price At this point and for many years Lynas is worth far more. Mt Weld has far more resources than MP. is one of the better mines for sure but MT Weld is much better.

I would maintain that both prices are highly inflated. Two stocks I have owned on and off for many years and both of which I recently sold, are FCX Who Mines and process gold and copper Current PE 30. PE about two years ago <10. NEM is primarily a hard rock gold company but in that hard rock is also Silver, copper, Zink, and lead All of which it refines as well. Current PE about 20 traditional <10. I did not mention MP PE. Simply it does not have one because it has not made money for one FY. If I take MP last 4 Qs then are on course to make $60 M in a year. If nothing negative happens and that may happen. Market cap of 6B divide 60M So there PE is actually half of Lynas's but still grossly over valued. I expect 2021 to be a great year for Lynas and would not be surprised to see its PE drop to <100 with AR in August 2021.

All this comparison of Lynas and MP reminds me of Dot Com. On every board for a Dot Com company posters compared their company to other companies with over inflated prices. To justify why their company should be higher. In the end they all crashed no mater how good or bad the company was. Amazon USD 106 Nov 1999 to 8.37 May of 2001. Amazon survived but many others just went BK.

If you think Lynas should be higher answer at least two of these questions. If you can't what makes you positive on Lynas? Surly you have some reason for figuring AUD 6.00 or higher is as fair price.

1. Lynas was worth AUD 2.20 in May of 2020. What events or press releases have happened since then to make it worth AUD 6.00 to day? Was it undervalued then. Why?
2. Lynas management sold $450 M in stock a little less than a year ago. They will need that cash but not till later this year. Why would they have sold then unless they thought AUD 2.25 / Share was a good price for company. That they should sell at what they thought was a good price. Has anything happened since then that makes the company worth more? What?
3. Do you believe that PEs are at these levels for another 3 or 4 years? If so why? What do you think is a reasonable PE for Lynas? Why?
4. Could you say what Lynas profits will be in 2021, 2023 and 2025? To do this you need to make assumptions could you say what yours are?

Many times since the roaring 1920s stock prices have soared. Most recently dot com 1998 - 2000 crashed in 2001 banks 2005 - 2007. Crashed 2008. Here is a 90 year chart of S&P PEs take a look at how high PEs have been historically and what happed soon after. Now look at last 9 years and explain why we should not expect a dramatic drop in PEs in next year or two and what that would do to Lynas SP even if profits double or triple between now and 2025. IE if Lynas PE drops to 20 then price drops to AUD 0.60 Profits triple that is SP of AUD 1.80. I personally would not be surprised if their PE drops to about 10.

Do not misunderstand me. I think Lynas is a great company with great potential. I like the management team. They have done some great things and also some bad. I think the price is way too high right now because of speculation just like MP and one that is worse is UCORE. Even UCORE's Board says they will be out of business in less than a year without new financing. 20 years and they have not produced any material for sales just experimentation. Read UCORE Q report. So yes Lynas's profits will go up dramatical between now and 2025. But that does not mean that the SP will go up as well. I see several points in time when profits could fall back as well. Speculation usually has a steep rise then a steep fall. I see no reason for Lynas's current SP other than speculations.