Weekly Fundamental and Technical Analysis Prospects - Week Starting 1st Sept 2014 (No. 129)
Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week).
All listed market caps are undiluted (and do not include escrowed shares) (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).
Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that you perform detailed research on each stock first and make your own mind up to whether invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!
Weekly Fundamental Analysis Prospects
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CDY - Biotech in Sydney [1/09/2014]
Preliminary report just out after market close Friday (saw Revenue increase 267%).http://www.cellmid.com.au/SiteMedia/w3svc921/Uploads/Documents/Cellmid_30 May 2014.pdfReport validated analyst DCF forecasts which place price target at 7 to 25.9cents (SP is currently 3c). 2014 was first full FY of global ‘Evolis’ sales (Evolis is the first FDA approved hair loss product in 20yrs, natural without the nasty side effects of peer products. It has recently moved into the china hair loss market worth Billions).2014 saw Big Perpetual IP rental payments start to roll in (the company has multiple contracts in place to receive ongoing royalties payments from various organisations for rental of CDY’s IP).Aside from the being a 22M cap micro bio with multiple recently established revenue streams, the value of the cancer diagnostic pipeline (moving to clinical trials) dwarfs anything above. The registry it tightly held and SP has been range trading for a long time. A perfect set-up for this to run hard towards intrinsic value. The preliminaries came out after market close Friday so Monday morning will see the first trades since preliminary reports release
Poster: Trae (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13900405/single (Mcap: $22.1m)
SBB - Apparel China [1/09/2014]
Is this the next big leg week for SBB ?The VWAP at 11c has now more than flipped the volume of entire liquidity, forming a strong base over the past month.(only explanation for the churn would be some seeds investors taking 500% profit)The half yearly figures were outstanding as expected, from the quarterlies - no bad surprises. Broadening coverage will bring more buyers - Brokers reviewing, and management doing a round trip to china. Roadshows would follow. This represents an ideal short term trade entry level IMO. Downside minimal when the entire available registry volume has flipped at 11c.PE3. 88m revenue, 15-16m NPAT, cash 30m, 3.4 EPS - massive growth profile will fuel longs back to IPO pricing, and onward to $1.50 in a few years. (expansion from 400-1000+ stores, = 10c eps x PE15
Poster: Merlerredneck (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13901164/single (Mcap: $51.9m)
PEK - Rare Earths in Tanzania [1/09/2014]
330 shares on issue, Market cap $29 mill. Cash $2 mill. There was no real bounce since last announcement, but volume and price both heading higher in the 3 weeks ago since released, although more interest since interview with Tracy from Investor intel. PEK has formed a reasonable long (for holders) base and appears to be breaking out. There was a supposed rumour re finance developments but cannot be confirmed. Interesting close, sold down by$25...Project development strategy - Positive discussions continue to advance with a number of potential strategic partners in China and the Middle East and financial institutions in Europe regarding funding of the Definitive Feasibility Study and construction costs for the Company’s 100%-owned Ngualla Rare Earth Project in Tanzania. Latest benefication Detailed due diligence processes are underway. In addition, the Company has received strong interest in relation to a potential off-take agreement for a portion of the Company’s planned 10,000 tonne per annum separated rare earth
Poster: Ibuybullion (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13897663/single (Mcap: $24.3m)
BCT - Technology [29/08/2014]
TechnologyMarket cap: $17mProbably everyone knows what BCT is. As the sector is hot, BCT is relative cheaper compared PSY. More than 50% retraced today, vwap for last two days, are 16.5-17c.Peer, PSY has a stellar run, up 10000% (spotted by Fib),BCT was up +200%, but retraced half, currently sits 14c, less than it was 12 months ago, 16c.BCT register is small, 127m shares, it could run again. Per the June quarterly report, BCT has a short term funding facility of $720,000. So they can last approx. 9 months if funded by short term facility
Poster: Accaeric (STT Accuracy: 47.6% - Ranking No.7 ) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13890832/single (Mcap: $17.2m)
SBB - Apparel China [27/08/2014]
market cap: $54m cash: $30.5m - debt: $5.5m, E/V: $29m. Half year results:- half year sales: $43.7m, Up 10% - net profit: $7.5m est.- net cash flow generated from operating: $11m - PE: 4 SBB is growing, locates in a huge prospective market with over 1.3b population, but is Only valued at PE of 4.SBB is also a LT investment as the business is generating solid cash and is expanding
Poster: Accaeric (STT Accuracy: 47.6% - Ranking No.7 ) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13870432/single (Mcap: $51.9m)
BBG - SurfWear [27/08/2014]
Billabong:- market cap: $530m - cash: $226m ? Don't know why they just raised another $50m if have $220m cash?- debts: $441m- E/V: $751mHalf year results:- half year sales: $660m. Down 4.7%- net profit/(loss): ($190m), added back income tax benefit- Adjusted net profit: $6m. Adjusted discontinued operations and abnormal items.- Adjusted PE: 88
Poster: Accaeric (STT Accuracy: 47.6% - Ranking No.7 ) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13870432/single (Mcap: $559.6m)
SBN - Medical/Biotech [21/08/2014]
High risk!, but potentially high reward. A micro-cap biotech company - in the development and commercialisation of point of care rapid diagnostics including illicit drug screening devices which they are trying to give new life to but most importantly they have some cash, an experienced board and are looking for acquisitions. This is a biotech with a seemingly very short pathway to commercialisation via their existing product, but it seems the current board wants to add value via acquisition/transactions. Howard Digby is involved with Forrest Capital who I believe were the ones behind the following successful biotech acquisitions/transactions which all resulted in significant re-rates: Cynata Therapeutics / EcoQuest (ECQ, now CYP)Oncosil / Neurodiscovery (NDL, now OSL) Imugene (IMU)Forrest Capital were also involved in the recent transaction in White Star Resources (ASX:WSR). Look what happened to the share price of WSR. IMO the opportunity lies in Forrest Capitals involvement in the company. They have taken a large stake in the last capital raise and will be looking to introduce an asset with minimal dilution given they are already large shareholders. It seems they have been looking for an acquisition for some time which, whilst frustrating for existing holders, IMO hopefully shows that they are not just going to jump on the first thing that comes along. This should mean that a quality biotech/ICT project will be acquired and the company can start to enjoy a re-rate and stable market cap similar to that of the companies previously mentioned - CYP, OSL, etc
Poster: Prestonian (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13849363/single (Mcap: $2.6m)
DLC - MediaSales and Gold [21/08/2014]
Current price is 0.8c with a market cap of 5.067 Million-Cash position of 4.764 Million as of last quarter and so trading at near cash backing-Net Tangible assets worth 1.9c (12.3 Million dollars according to the half yearly report) and total assets worth 2.1c. Hence current prices (0.8c) are trading well below half the company's NTA-Zero debt-CEO (Malcolm Day) holds 24% of all shares and the entire management holds 41% of all the shares in DLC as of last year's annual report. Evidence of the dedication that the management team and especially the CEO's dedication to the company can be seen in the amount of funds he has put into DLC (formerly adultshop.com) as seen here http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/...772232879?nk=ecf932a50acf7498a23e9df8892b7977-Best of all, the business is cashflow positive as evidenced by the last 3 quarters where the last 3 quarterlies showed a cashflows of: +1.761 Million (the huge spike is attributable to adjustments to their inventory), +455K and +383K in the chronological order-
Owns ~25% of PNE shares
Poster: Desmin (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13845144/single (Mcap: $5.1m)
TNG - Vanadium/CopperZinc Lead [20/08/2014]
A diversified explorer focused primarily on the Mt Peake Vanadium resource (forecast revenues +20 years A$13.6 bill). One other significant project is the Mt Hardy Copper: peak grades of 26.4% up to 46.6% copper, 8.24% to 21.8% zinc and 14.7% to 36.8% lead.?? The following correction "MD in latest BRR made mention of several key announcements this quarter so I thought despite my extreme confidence long term worth a punt on an announcement or two shortly that will garner at least a 25% gain over the next 4 weeks. Recent announcements include ... - Non binding MOUs signed with POSCO E & C to assist in finance and construction. "POSCO E&C is part of the multi-billion dollar POSCO Group of companies, a global steel giant and world-leader in resource development and construction".- Letter of Intent signed with major Korean-based WOOJIN IND. CO. for Vanadium off-take “…paves the way for binding agreements on vanadium off-take and marketing …” 12 June 2014- Non binding MOU with Gunvor Group, Global commodities tra
der, "Discussions on binding agreements will commence immediately for the off-take, marketing and distribution of the iron products and by-products from Mount Peake." 23rd June 2014- Non binding MOUs from Hyundai Steel "The MoU encompasses strategic co-operation to deliver a cornerstone investment in TNG, potential off-take for the iron products from TNG’s Mount Peake project and includes consideration of TNG’s other resource projects"...."Hyundai Steel will also assist TNG with procuring project finance..." 14th July 2104Consolidating nicely and waiting for company making news, could be any one of the above MOU becoming binding or locked in.
Poster: Ibuybullion (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13841731/single (Mcap: $121.9m)
PRA - Exploration Peru [27/08/2014]
Promesa Ltd is a Perth based ASX listed Company with a portfolio of exploration properties in Peru focused on precious and base metal commodities. Market Cap? Approx. 500mil shares after 2x recent CR's Coming of a wide base with bullish divergence on the oscillator indicators that I follow. Make no mistake this chart has all the Long Term hidden TA characteristics I look for when out stalking with my favourite elephant gun and is currently in the bounce zone. Closed today up 10.7 %, at 3.2c just above the 200 day average at 3c on approx. 4mil shares (expecting more of the same volume tomorrow)Potential near term targets for the short term are at 5.3c, 6.4c, 7.7c and 17c Catalyst>>(Last week) PRA started 1900m diamond drilling Alumbre District (Au, Cu, Mo) targeting "potential" world class porphyry system. So hopefully the speculation that has just started continues to push the SP to one of those first targets or with any 'positive' results that are ann'd in the next few days/ weeks will see this head up to hopefully test one of the higher targets. Not really that bullish on what they are drilling for but that is a personal opinion, this tip is purely following a TA system that has just triggered a buy sig generated by market opinion, with a daily close above the 10mth EMA got away from me today but hoping to get a position in the next couple of days. following is Mthly chart
Poster: Pilsner (STT Accuracy: 50% - Ranking No.6 ) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13876839/single (Mcap: $6m)
AJX - Fabrics [22/08/2014]
Company with military and civil testing and contacts re. non halogen flame retardant chemical products for fabrics. Multiple tests out with clients in a whole variety of industry. Non halogen should be a big big thing in the near green future. The company has many patents. The fabrics market is huge. eg. Look what you are sitting on and what you are wearing, also, look at your curtains and furniture ----------- that's fabric, and, there are laws about fabrics being flame retardant. Cash seems ok and sales began with what should be volume building. This company is WA based but works out of the USA. Technical entry only at this point. Solid trend line breakout with volume. - weekly and daily look good. There is fundamental change to back it - but I will only go on technical at present.
Poster: Pintohoo (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13852943/single (Mcap: $31.3m)
MEO - Oil Explorer [20/08/2014]
On 7/8, announced valuation realisation potential sending share price more than double regarding Tassie Shoal Project. today, on NZ minor project failure, sent sp back where it was before 7/8.cash on hand approx $15m.more details please refer to the MEO's announcements. I picked this one because initial huge spike was not relate to NZ project. it is possible rising again when TS project attracts attention
Poster: Accaeric (STT Accuracy: 47.6% - Ranking No.7 ) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13842054/single (Mcap: $34.5m)