Weekly Fundamental and Technical Analysis Prospects - Week Starting 11th Aug 2014 (No. 127)
Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week). All listed market caps are undiluted (and do not include escrowed shares) (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).
Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that you perform detailed research on each stock first and make your own mind up to whether invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!
GUN - Copper at Mount Gunson, Western Australia [13/08/2014]
Financial Analysis - GUN have fallen from grace in recent times as the deal with Posco fell through for development of their WA mineral sand project. This sands project is going nowhere until prices increase, although they continue to look for a partner. What has sparked the interest today is the positive scoping study for the Windabout Copper project. Early proof of concept results suggest that they can extract copper, cobalt and silver from the Mount Gunson MG14 tenement and in contrast to the work done previously the extraction rates mean that it could now be commercially viable. I have seen a research report earlier this year that Gunson’s 49% equity interest then carries a projected conceptual valuation of $36.1 million or $0.14 per share (undiluted) at commencement of mining operations. All the costs up to 2.5m are being carried by Terrace Mining and the provisional costings should be known in 3 months. I was going to tip it yesterday when the Director buying notices came out, but was too busy. Pity as it already moved 25% today. Probably a longer term pick than 4 weeks but worth taking a position I think.
Poster: Markeewan (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13807410/single (Mcap: $6.4m)
YPB - Counterfeit Goods Detection [12/08/2014]
Market cap $16M$3.75M was raised in an oversubscribed float (it was a shell restructure that was previously suspended in 2005)101M shares on issue- 67.2M escrowed for 24 months- 7.1M escrowed for 12 months Of those, the top 20 account for 85%There were 8M shares held by the old holders, who have waited since 2005 when the previous company entered suspension - that is 9 years to claim a capital loss. Since listing, it has traded just shy of 5M shares - reasonable to assume there can't be much more stock, as generally oversubscribed floats have limited supply The last article on them said they had 4 invested $10M and 4 years of D&D-Company loans are to the director and convertible at the higher of 20c or 30 day vwap- 9 contracts signed with revenues of $2M p.a currently on 3-5 year contracts - up to 90% margins Based on the old volumes, they were on a PE of around 8. That was before today's announcement which mentioned they have doubled shipping and signed new agreements and trials with one of China's largest clothing exporters - potential for 5M to 100M unit ramp up there alone. So with some significant deals secured, and shipping doubled, it is reasonable to say these are now trading on a PE of well less than 8, in a market that is growing 20% YOY and is valued at $14Bn in China alone. Expect a decent bounce once the seller is done
Poster: VonTrader (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13801149/single (Mcap: $0m)
BNR - Gold miner [11/08/2014]
Capped at $2.5M As at last quarterly had $2M in cash and scrip with "no immediate direct project expenditure" Sold 49% of the asset to PNR for $1.5M cash and $1.1M scrip. Free carried on next $4M of exploration. Project has a mineral resource estimate of 260k ozs @ 5.6g/t Now on the hunt for other acquisitions Also note that Matsa has been buying these guys up on market :-- change in substantial holding was dated 30/6/2014
Poster: VonTrader (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13791917/single (Mcap: $2.4m)
NEU - Pharmaceuticals [11/08/2014]
10c. $150m cap Cash $22mNeuren Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company focusing on the development of new therapies for brain injury, neurodevelopmental and neurodegenerative disorders. Neuren’s strategy is designed to increase the value of its key drug products, NNZ-2566 and NNZ-2591, by extending the therapeutic focus from acute brain injury to chronic neurological conditions requiring longer term dosing. The Company’s focus emphasises product development opportunities with five crucial attributes: solid scientific rationale, significant unmet medical need, compelling market opportunity, favourable regulatory treatment with a clear path to approval, and potential for development for additional conditions. Four Phase 2 trials of NNZ-2566 in Rett Syndrome, Fragile X Syndrome, moderate to severe Traumatic Brain Injury and Concussion are all fully funded through to completion in 2014 and 2015.Plenty of results and news expected this coming quarter. Has retraced from recent run up and now sitting at good value. Really worth checking out the way these guys operate. US Army funding, plenty cash, Orphan drug status, Fast track FDA status and more. The post below is a very detailed update of FA events.http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/new-updated-items-list.2076707/page-63?post_id=13789326
Poster: J8 (STT Accuracy: 50% - Ranking No.8 ) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13794903/single (Mcap: $143.1m)
BMG - Drilling for nickel in Cypress [11/08/2014]
Drill results due in about 2 weeks I did email company last week they said a drilling update this week never happened a little disappointing appears to be so accumulation going on started at .007 early in the week has continued into .008 today with a couple of larger sales end of day negative is it will need cash in the not to distant future
Poster: DarrenPincini (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13792569/single (Mcap: $5.7m)
CZD - Health/Biotech [6/08/2014]
MC - 50mCash - 4mRecently received FDA approval and CE mark approval (the euro equiv of FDA) for the marketing of a topical negative pressure dressing (TNP )- The market for TNP market is estimated at $2.5 billion annually. They are now searching for a partner to market and distribute their product, which testing has shown to outperform the current standard of care - in other words its better than everything on the market currently, in fact the FDA has stated that they have concerns with the current standard of care and something better is required. Further they have also recently received FDA approval to market the peptide AOD9604 as a food additive, this peptide has been found to be efficacious in reducing obesity and healing joints. In other words you can spread it on your wheatbix in the morning.(AOD9604 is the same stuff Essendon was using)In short this company has FDA approval for the marketing of two desirable products into the most lucrative market on the planet (the holy grail of all biotech companies) it just remains to find the appropriate partners to bring them to market. Recent trading on the stock suggests this may not be far away imo
Poster: V8 (STT Accuracy: 41.7% - Ranking No.10 ) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13771105/single (Mcap: $43.9m)
BUR - Oil /gas in Colarado County, Texas [4/08/2014]
MCap~$8.0m Cash on hand ~$1.7m No debt Financial Analysis - BUR has 5 producing wells on their Colorado leases and is about to add another. The drilling is progressing at 900 feet/day as they towards a final depth of 11750 feet which is likely to be hit later this week. Once they evaluate the well logs the decision will be taken to complete the well and connect to sales (or not).This is my 5th pick of BUR in the STT with gains of 25%, 31%, 38%, 21%, but I am hoping for a coloured jersey with this one. The Heintschel field is a producing field so stick the drill bit in and history shows there is a high degree of certainty of BUR hitting gas and condensate; the question is how much. In the interests of balance and evaluating the risk, consider four scenarios.1. Find nothing - lose half your investment2. Low case of 1000 mcf gas - ~40% increase3. Med case of 2000 mcf gas - ~125% increase4. High case of 4000 mcf gas - ~290% increase have a feeling that the 3 cent options will soon be in the money and at a long shot the 8 cent options could be as well. (not tradeable, Directors only) as the drill site for this well has been chosen based on a number of successful wells nearby that have used the same 3D dataset
Poster: Markeewan (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13759677/single (Mcap: $7.6m)
SBB - Clothing manufacturer and seller in china [14/08/2014]
After IPO the price crashed and has now formed a cup-and-handle pattern between an intra-day high on the way down and a recent surge after the quarterly to 15.5 c. The cup depth is 9.5c and the handle is not as shallow as I would of liked at 5c, nevertheless yesterday gave an early indication of the support and direction and a complete buy signal would be increase volume and price rise by the end of this week as the pattern breaks out. Final target would be 24c which should be achieved in the 4 weeks of this tip... barring any massive financial crash or over-seas war etc etc
Poster: Nihilism (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13808313/single (Mcap: $54.2m)
HCH - Copper in in Chile, South America [7/08/2014]
reversal on the candle sticks, all good on the oscillators, all though stochs are showing over bought on the daily. Today’s price jump, like a few of the small cap miners probably based on D&D interest. Market cap <$80m
Poster: 383hq (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13778734/single (Mcap: $95.6m)
PYM - Oil and Gas [4/08/2014]
Early stage rapid growth company in the oil and had exploration industry targeting shallow low risk shale. It has had higher volumes and accumulations in the last week than in the rest of the last year. Buyer stack up is to die for with not many available on the sellers side.
Poster: Channan88 (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13753470/single (Mcap: $3.4m)
KM will have $8.6M in cash and a further $2.3M in liquid assets ,having a nominal price(for the moment) of 20c will see it open with a MC of $16.5M ,about 82 million shares on issue and an EV of about $6MRXL on the other hand has approximately $3.8M in cash ,735 million shares on issue, a MC of $33.5M with an EV of $29.7MDKM I believe also has a larger JORC Resource than RXL. Below is a map showing their respective tenements
