STT Weekend Lounge 17-19 April 2015, page-79

given the negative sentiment of the week i'd have to go with @Freehold and say we're still someway off.

ozpolarbear writes like the spam stock picking emails i get frequently calling for the end of the world. While agree with some of his comments I would say valuations aren't as stretched in the US  as we think, i would caveat that by saying they are probably priced for no near term interest rate hikes which is dangerous. Pre GFC P/E ratio highs at 5% interest rates aren't directly comparable to P/E's at 1-2% interest rates from a NPV point of view, and since the fed will want to ease into an interest rate positive environment I think the hike will only result in some short term volatility, not a crash scenario.

My other thoughts would that Australia is in an interesting position at the moment, if interest rates rise in the US due to continuing economic improvements and lower unemployment then the selloff in australia may happen in a 'perfect storm' scenario where our unemployment is trending up and our balance of payments is being raped by the price of commodities (sorry WA based so commodities are all we can relate to). In this scenario while having the pants scared off us the government has lots of room to move with interest rates and the dollar will be ravaged, helping our exporters. In this scenario I don't think the market outlook is too bad, except for the banks, I don't like the banks. For the sake of a yarn I'll call CBA $100 as the point in time to reevaluate.

Finally, this thread's lacking a few ideas lately on truly short term stocks which is its purpose so i'll throw one i like into the mix. If the world economy goes to hell it won't go well but lets get some more stocks into the mix.

ACX, SaaS mobile and webbased project management software. 50,000 users
1H15 revenue 38.1m, so roughly $75m Fy15, currently growing at 20%p.a.
Slightly EBITDA positive, looking at 3.5m positive this FY from what i've heard.
Gross margins 74%, running the numbers of overseas investment it has shown to be extremely positive
i.e. increased marketing spend resulting in significantly higher revenues
Truly global potential, admittedly it is HUGELY expensive and there is no margin of safety however 20% growth rates are hard to ignore.

Capped at ~$350m, should be +ve NPAT next year. Considering some of the overpriced tech companies at least this ones got money coming in.

Lets bring some more stocks to the forum in addition to economic speculation.

EDIT: think someone mentioned but i think the biggest unknown is likely to come out of china, Greece everyones looking at it, it never seems to pan out like that, China to opaque for anyone to gage could be a curve ball.