STTrading thread weekend 28 - 29th October 2023, page-25

Hound, BH & I just polishing the dreaded tax return, capital gain section while seen better days not too shabby considering overall market performance. A trend starting about 5 years ago confirmed in latest return, no of trades decreasing but transaction size increasing.

Praise where due the trend pretty much coincided with Frank taking up the position of head of strategy in the garage. His mantra that top predators all about high conviction kills with zero tolerance of injury, so they can hunt again tomorrow, repeated often from the log especially after he has binge watched old Attenborough docos about predation on the great African killing fields of the Serengeti.

I suppose his argument is his mammals when analyzing risk/reward of a trade let emotion discount risk and inflate reward, it’s the nature of the beast. How many true high conviction plays does one come across in a year, 10 maybe 15? Most humans trade way more than that to satisfy their primal drive of fear & greed, Frank would suggest the very definition of a prey animal.

Au got a bit of momentum behind it atm, with a still rising DXY the lads can’t justify increased exposure, just doesn’t seem rational although 1^st to admit rationality not really a component of the ASX in 2023, all about noise and momentum, have held RMS for some time and that’s about it.

Of the quarterly’s analyzed so far one stands out, A1M.

A1M have mentioned before, small Cu/Au producer, market not interested in this sector atm with the fragility of price of Cu, lumps all the small producers together and avoids as if they have botulism, so won’t bang on about it other than if you’re looking for a high quality emerging micro-cap Cu play to include in your WL for when Cu fundamentals turn, look no further, see quarterly below link, for the students of FA a very good read, for the TA crowd no squiggly lines I’m afraid but some pretty coloured graphs that might hold your attention. Many highlights not least producing robust positive cash flow off decreasing AISC on a platform of increasing high grade scale. (Garage holds).

https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20231017/pdf/05w4bc2g3tfx2v.pdf

Only hold 1 or 2 others at small end, the current yield environment not shouting ‘risk on’, reentered DXB @ 13ish on retracement, that last announcement a game changer imo, sold BCB for small loss, qtrly not up to scratch but watching the price of coking coal carefully.

U also remains fundamentally strong. Talking about beaten down sectors have the crew on the rail locked into the LIT ETF sub 50 for signs of support, even at today’s spod prices a high grade hard rock oz producer is an absolute cash cow, if the spod price keeps falling though patience the key, never buy a stock just because it is cheaper than it was yesterday.

Daughter came thru with a Canberra source of quality crisp almond, so the crew on the rail back in the game, daughter and few of her mates are full time at the homestead atm while the hound & his adult humans are away, their main job supplying support to the rail and the log.

Winged crew on the rail not too keen on all these offshore wind farms, they reckon puts too much pressure on the trade, turning all the avian biomass into daytraders, gotta get your entry and exit just right or a watery grave. The question from the rail is can't we just minimise demand for more energy by having less humans? Would solve so many other problems as well, thinking about it they have a point.