I have not done any basic research for about 3 years (except on stocks I own, which I know inside out) .
Several years ago (maybe 2008) I systematically went through the entire list of ASX companies (starting with the A's) to familiarise myself with the landscape (I am exclusively ASX orientated).... none of that helped me in my decisions.
I tracked the stock picking prowess of some fund managers (2012 to 2015).... found that Roger Montgomery consistently scores +20% positive returns overall (some howlers in that).
Oz stocks are heavily weighted to commodities and on the principle of "go the way you are pushed" I gradually built up a potted understanding. Have come a cropper on Tech, Bio, Oil, Financial and basically leave that alone.
Spent (and continue to spend) endless hours watching YouTube interviews of experts. Most of them are a complete waste of time (kissing frogs sort of exercise) but on the odd occasion you get that important key insight which unlocks the winning strategy. Such a person is a Canadian geologist (now basically retired) by the name of Brent Cook. He summed it up this way.... Scale and Grade. Commodities all suffer from the economic cycle... the only projects which do not close down or go broke are the big high grade ones. The #1 criterion is cost of production... that trumps all other fundamental considerations.
The big lesson that has seeped into my bones is although the project might be attractive IT IS THE MANAGEMENT THAT IS THE MORE IMPORTANT. It is the management that you are actually investing in. Bad management can destroy the best projects.
Another caution is the better the project the more the sharks circle. (e.g. think AVZ... the World's largest lithium deposit by a country mile.... of course the Chinese were always going to steal it). A good project requires canny management to steer it to a success.
A lot of scumbag managements out there.... be warned... it is you against them. Their modus operandi is "self first, anything left over... self again"
I start a new watchlist at the beginning of each year in which I place any company which happens to catch my eye. I do not bother to make notes... I just trust that if I thought it was interesting then it is interesting. I only occasionally refer to the lists (from 2012 to now) and notice 10% eventually die, 80% do nothing (turn red) but the remaining 10% can be special.
This is the screenshot of 2024 so far. I date the selection and note the ask price for that day.
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I spent a few years learning about charting... more art than science, but, did discover that volume increases before price moves (up or down).
Much, much more important than research is money management skills. My experience is I do not get paid very often.... so when I do find a winner I get greedy and take the maximum risk.... however, I always take a little off the table as the price rises. I am not afraid to buy and not afraid to sell. I have been full time for 4 years. It is extremely rare to find something which "rockets to the moon"... realistic timelines for major moves is maybe 2 years.
The ASX runs a free trading game which I play whenever it is on. I use it to experiment with different strategies. It is as close to the real thing as you can get for a simulation.
I take a deep interest in World affairs. Unfortunately it is the self interest of the idiots in high positions which creates most of the problems.
e.g. Currently.... the Gaza conflict is risking morphing into what seems to be a universal and indiscriminate persecution of Jews. I can not think of a more dangerous scenario. What is unfolding in Gaza is not worse than the Ukraine conflict, or the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan... people did not blindly hate Russians or Americans (and dare I say it, Australians) but they will blindly turn their hatred on to Jews. The zeitgeist of the World is turning towards authoritarianism... there is an obvious undercurrent of anger and distrust that is so close to an uncontrolled rage... which only needs a universal focus to get out of its cage.
