I come across this lady doing some research on hydrogen she has a few articles that are easy to follow .
She explains the Gartner hype cycle which is used for new technologies etc .
Nice .
An nice reads to understand also where things may come across again an again in the investment cycle say .
Clean hydrogen is planned for many nations
Japan, the Republic of Korea, China, Germany, Britain, the European Union, United States and New Zealand all have plans for clean hydrogen. In some cases such as California, this extends to specific targets with respects to uptake of fuel cell electric vehicles and development of refuelling infrastructure. Aside from Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy, around the world there are 19 other hydrogen strategies and roadmaps. There is an expectation that hydrogen has a major role to play in decarbonisation, including within the mining sector. Consensus is that large-scale and rapid deployment of hydrogen technologies will emerge from 2030 onwards.
Which brings us back to the Gartner Hype Cycle. History contains examples of disruptive technologies that will make their mark in 10 years’ time, and the 10 years in question keeps receding. Some technologies to produce zero-emissions hydrogen are well understood (e.g. electrolysers powered by renewable electricity) but are expensive and have not been deployed at scale. Other technologies such as photo-catalysts are still being developed. This is why the recent Technology Investment Roadmap Discussion Paper published by the Australian Government placed hydrogen vehicles at Technology Readiness Level 7 (Demonstration in operational environment) but with a very high cost of emissions abatement at around $1,000/t CO2 abated.
There are many who see green hydrogen as a vital part of Australia’s future energy landscape with exciting potential as a future energy export; and it’s encouraging to see governments and companies take steps to support its development. However, the gap between the current status of hydrogen for materials movement and other applications in mining, and what is required for it to be economic against alternatives provides ample scope for a slide down to the Trough of Disillusionment.
Time will tell whether hydrogen for mining languishes in the Trough of Disillusionment because other zero-emissions technologies prove to be more cost-effective. Or whether it climbs to the Plateau of Productivity as hydrogen becomes the flexible fuel of the future.
