True confessions time?? Nah... like any inveterate gambler I'm...

True confessions time??

Nah... like any inveterate gambler I'm only going to tell you about my wins. So... .... .... ... ... ... ... (that's the sound of crickets).

There have been a few well attended mining conferences in recent months. The common denominator is so many good stories in combination with very low market caps. Excellent bargains all over the place. Contrarian heaven? Not so fast!

Why is it so?

#1 Passive investment vehicles have a stranglehold on allocation.... which feeds the fat and starves the young.
#2 Inflation.... which is kryptonite for an economy. Small business takes it hardest and many will be forced into bankruptcy.
#3 High interest rates.... sucks money away from growth opportunities and into established revenue vehicles. High interest rates are a disincentive for risk taking.... and are a brake on economic growth.

Stories which are dying...
#1 The EV revolution
#2 The energy transition from fossil fuels
#3 China will save us
#4 Peace on Earth

Themes which have some chance of lingering long enough to put food on the table...
#1 Copper... despite the prospect of total failure, the energy transition theme will continue to be the narrative. The heroic but utterly vain attempt will go on and the perceived need for copper will drive the copper price to ever new highs.
#2 Gold... the silly human belief that a pet rock is where eternal value lives will grow in intensity as fiat money sprinkles down upon our heads like an endless rain of confetti.
#3 AI.... the shiny new thing we can all believe in (bah humbug)
#4 BitCoin.... if that didn't exist how could anyone move their money out of China? How could the CIA secretly fund dictators? Of course BTC has a use case. (probably topped out price wise though ... imo)

Meanwhile ..... in the real World

#1 Israel will extend the conflict into Lebanon... things only going to get worse there.
#2 The recent charm offensive by the 2ic from China visiting all of the major countries in the Pacific... what's with that?... imo... they sense a growing weakness and disruption in the US and the invasion of Taiwan is closer than ever (if the US election results in chaos the game is on... imo.) Visiting all of the Pacific powers ahead of time is potentially about preempting political retaliation.
#3 Economic and climate migration has only just started ... the early stages of that has been absorbed so far by the US and Europe but the hostilities are palpable.
And one last one
#4 Anybody paying attention to the push in the US for Disclosure of the UAP (previously UFO) phenomenon? They are here guys.

All up ... if you make some money this year count yourself lucky, don't let it go to your head and don't fritter it away on trying to do it all the time.

This has to be one of the better movie soundtracks (intro) in many a year...