Everything depends upon what the US does.
The analysis that has convinced me is interest rates are not coming down substantially but the Fed will inject liquidity.
If true, then to fund the US budget the Fed will have to be prepared to backstop a lot of government paper.
Markets will be a beneficiary.... IMO. Might last 6 months but the fly in the ointment is the November election... hard to see that as anything other than a massive disruption.
So... currently the US government has a lot of 2 year paper which has to start rolling over. My guess is the Fed will take up the excess (which is a big number) in the form of 10 year notes. This would prevent the 10 year interest rate going parabolic and allow extend and pretend.
Bottom line... the US is committed to increasing the money supply (which this time cannot be bottled up in the banks because it has to fund government spending). So inflation will continue with a negative real rate environment. The market will continue to be flush with liquidity... and the winner is?.... gold.
My random thoughts as I observe the multitude of chickens on the horizon coming home to roost.
This leaves out any consideration of Ukraine and Gaza... both of which are a manifest clusterfk. Especially Gaza. If ever there was a time to call a halt to a conflict Gaza is it.
