Let the numbers speak:-
* STX have not issued an Independent Certification of EP447. I note that they have issued one for Ocean Hill. My estimate is therefore constrained to a "nearology" guesstimate. Please refer to EP447's position on "the fairway" and to STX poster Mir911's assertion that L7/EP395 ground has been drilled before and is marginal (which I extrapolate to infer EP447 is superior)
** The implied value of the STX offer will fluctuate based on the STX share price, base is current closing price of $0.40, best is highest since offer announced, $0.44
* Santos GSA is in USD so subject to FX fluctuations. Assume STO take on a linear basis
*Uncontracted revenue is forecast on estimated WA Spot Price. Actual price may vary. To derive revenue of "in excess of $82M p.a." (TPD $37M p.a.) per STX guidance, a spot price for uncontracted sales of $9/Gj is required IMO. Future year spot prices are estimates drawn for the AEMO GSOO supply/demand forecasts and from respected STX HC poster "618" who publishes his model. His latest model can be viewed on the "Strike to acquire Talon" thread posted on 16/8/23.
** Condensate revenue estimate is based on USD to AUD FX and is subject to fluctuation
*Walyering full field life of 10 years is drawn from the STX Production submission to DMIRS, refer EARS. Y6-Y10 assume 2C and 2U contingent and prosective resources flow to production. These are my estimates only.
*Bridge Street Capital Partners Research is published on the Talon Energy website
* STX have previously announced their "Gas Acceleration Strategy" which aims to have 4 projects in production by end CY2025. I note that respected STX poster 618 forecasts revenue from South Erugulla in 2026, full revenue from Ocean Hill in 2027, and West Eregulla in 2027. On that basis, TPD could be earning revenue from Condor in a similar timeframe subject to successful exploration and appraisal.
DISCLAIMER - The above is not financial advice, it is for information sharing purposes only. E&OE.
