STX offer guessing game, page-42

First 42 Last

Justadabble

8,964 Posts.

3027

30/07/23

11:45

Post #: 69060551

Originally posted by ellj13: ↑
If they agree on a deal my guess the ratio is 1 TPD share gets 0.55 STX shares.

Because the original proposal excluded Mongolia I removed this from the current TPD share price using TMK.
TMK for 67% of Mongolia = 80M market cap.
TPD for 33% = 40M market cap.

TPD current market cap = 120M less Mongolia above (40M) = 80M TPD market cap without Mongolia.
In SP terms, based on a 19c close a 80M market cap equates to 12.67cps being TPD's current share price without Mongolia.

Then based on potential agreed share ratio's between STX and TPD I looked at what the associated return would be based on TPD minus Mongolia.
I would think it would need to be above 30% return as a starting point so beyond 0.5:1 at an absolute minimum for any sort of takeover premium.
My guess of 0.55:1 is equivalent to a 43% uplift on the non-mongolia part of the business.

See table below based on STX current SP of 0.445cps:
Ratio

TPD

TPD less Gurvantees

Return on TPD adj

1
0.4270

0.1900

0.1267

0

2
0.4586

0.2041

0.1407

11%

3
0.4750

0.2114

0.1480

17%

4
0.5000

0.2225

0.1592

26%

5
0.5250

0.2336

0.1703

34%

6
0.5500

0.2448

0.1814

43%

7
0.5750

0.2559

0.1925

52%

8
0.6000

0.2670

0.2037

61%

9
0.6250

0.2781

0.2148

70%

10
0.6500

0.2893

0.2259

78%

There are likely many considerations I have not taken into account ie performance rights diluting TPD (the main reason a deal will be reached) and assumes a return on the $9M so just a bit of fun.

Let's see what Monday brings.
Expand
"Although TPD did not provide a stance on the proposal due to it being withdrawn priorto an evaluation it could be argued, based on our risked valuation of $0.36/sh, that itundervalued the company's assets, given our $0.20/sh valuation for Walyering alone."

TPD Price at posting: 19.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Top Stories

AII

Almonty locks in govt agreement for tungsten oxide plant in South Korea

I88

Infini soars 50% as company reveals it could’ve just made uranium history – redefining what it means to be “high grade”

SKS

SKS Technologies wins US$90M award to supply power to international hyperscale data centre in Melbourne

NIM

Nimy to raise $1.21M to explore 'newsy' WA targets

BHP

BHP dips as WA nickel suspended after A$6B hit; losses eased by US CPI and forewarning

Bitcoin investors need to know the risks

ASX hits all time high out the gate on Friday trades following bullish US inflation data

IMM

Immutep reports strong response rate from immunotherapies treating carcinomas

MDI

Nanocap Middle Island Resources kicks off Barkly copper-gold drill run – a potential IOCG-style NT project

Week 27 Wrap: ASX hits all time high; CBA shares' two realities; US inflation hits 3% ahead of China plenum

There are more pages in this discussion • 60 more messages in this thread...

First 42 Last

Add TPD (ASX) to my watchlist

STX offer guessing game, page-42

Top Stories

Almonty locks in govt agreement for tungsten oxide plant in South Korea

Infini soars 50% as company reveals it could’ve just made uranium history – redefining what it means to be “high grade”

SKS Technologies wins US$90M award to supply power to international hyperscale data centre in Melbourne

Nimy to raise $1.21M to explore 'newsy' WA targets

BHP dips as WA nickel suspended after A$6B hit; losses eased by US CPI and forewarning

Bitcoin investors need to know the risks

ASX hits all time high out the gate on Friday trades following bullish US inflation data

Immutep reports strong response rate from immunotherapies treating carcinomas

Nanocap Middle Island Resources kicks off Barkly copper-gold drill run – a potential IOCG-style NT project

Week 27 Wrap: ASX hits all time high; CBA shares' two realities; US inflation hits 3% ahead of China plenum

Featured News