In Australia the market generally likes to see at least a 5% or...

In Australia the market generally likes to see at least a 5% or so dividend yield from large companies, so the recent $23 share price indicates that the market expects NAB's dividend to drop over the long term from $1.98 to around $1.15 which is a drop of more than 40%.

While this is possible, generally I suspect it is a typical market overshoot and that it won't be that bad. Hence I am buying at these prices with a dividend target of $1.60 which is a yield of almost 7% + franking credits (as an overseas investor the franking credits are not usable and it is possible they won't be of use to retirees in Australia soon so may not be a factor). Of course this is just guesswork based on finger in the wind analysis, but at this price there does not appear to be too much downside and a good chance of some upside.