sub 50c, page-7

Cato sure.

Firstly I don't 'chart'. I do look at basic chartss but use more or less fundamental analysis only.

All SLR holders can only guestimate and come up with their own conclusions as to the expected total ounces that will be produced in FY14 .... and the final average margin taking into consideration different grades, scheduling, throughput and all in costs at Murchison and Mt Monger and then the P/E that the 'market' will ascribe to SLR. Get one figure slightly wrong (which we all would) and then the fair SP is anyones guess. Need more guidance from SLR in next quarterly.

I have been working on all conservative figures during this recent risk off period for gold and have factored a total of 300k ozs next year from the combined SLR/IGR group. Net margin of $260 per oz at AUS$1410 gold price. Rough pre-tax profit of $78m for FY14. 20.5c EPS. Stupid P/E of 3.4 gave a SLR Share price of 70cents about a month ago when gold AUS$1410 per oz.

Since then the SP of SLR has pretty much risen and fallen in line with the change in gold price.

I have been using a rudimentary guide based on my above figures that for every $10 increase or decrease in AuS gold price, it affects the SLR Share Price by about 2.7 cents.

If you had told me 6 weeks ago that the SP would have fallen to 62c I would have said you were crazy. If you said that the SP would subsequently fall to an intra-day 51c today I would not have believed you. But here we are 6 weeks later with an Aus gold price over $100 lower than what it was which affects cash-flow and profitability of all producers.

I would like to believe that we have found the bottom for SLR because the company must be fundamentally undervalued, which the SP will reflect appropriately in time. Fair amount of shorting has been going on ATM.

However, if I am to believe figures that I have been using relatively well for over a month, it may not be out of the question that an AUS $1330 gold price equates to approx 48.5c - 49c per SLR share. Who knows. I am probably totally wrong but post in good faith not down-ramping. Check any of my previous posts if you like.

Happy trading or holding.

Sarge