This is Mr Lincoln Augustus, first second cousin of Holymagiman
What an interesting year it all has been. The markets fell, the banks fell, oil fell,the worlds fell and everyone has panicked. Most interesting.
And in the middle of all this, one can sit back and reflect on the mistakes that were done. Not by the humble "Mums and dads", not by the humble traders trying to make a buck.
The mistakes were made by the highly paid big ego bankers, economists and central bankers, who thought that they were little gods in their own right.
Holymagiman and I ponder on the economists who talked up inflation and who expected interests rates in 2009 to be above 11%.
Holymagiman and I ponder on the Australian Reserve bank which raised interest rates early this year, even though Hoolymagiman wrote that it was sheer folly. But then again, Mr Stevens and his mob knew better.
Holymagiman wrote that shares like Fortescue and its ilk had but one way to go and that is the way it has gone. and that China would falter and that India would falter, and that the end of the Olympics would be the day of reckoning.
That led to a lot of debate, a lot of angst, but at the end of the day, China has faltered, India has slowed and the bank failures are being disclosed.....BUT NOT ALL, and not fully. Death by a thousand cuts.
Now the chickens have all come home to roost and everyone has bunkered down, and the little economists and the little central bankers are all in a tizz. And, as expected, old Bernanke has painted himself into a corner. I wonder if Mr Stevens got himself a big pot of paint for Christmas too.
Gross mismanagement, poor guidance by those who have been overly paid to guide us in the Central Banks. And they are all not answerable, and they are all not punishable.
So where to now? oil prices are falling, and the very people who were predicting oil prices at $150 and $200 are now calling $30 barrels. And they are being paid for this...the world sure is a funny place, run by a bunch of highly paid lemmings. Holymagiman is wondering what the collective noun for lemmings is..perhaps a "bonker" of lemmings??
So what does Holymagiman think is going to happen next. Well, there sure are a lot of panicky people running around, and there sure are a lot of scared people running around. But the fact of the matter is that, when all is said and done, people are just people, and the scaredness and the panickness will subside and things will get back to an even keel by and by.
And the thing about people is that people forget easily and adapt easily. Don't ever forget that this is not the 1920's. Conditions then were very different and times were harder. Much harder. and we did not have Greenspan and Bernanke and Stevens to guide us along...makes for some interesting questions, noo?
It is 2008 now, soon it will be 2009 and 2008 will be a memory in the past.
We have never had it so good and this is but a glitch in the whole scheme of things. Holymagiman feels that people will soon resume their usual ways and that will mean more energy consumption..sooner than most of the economists predict. Energy prices have but one way to go and that is up.
So there are very good opportunities shaping up now for those who can read the writing, especially in shares such as Molopo and Eastern Star. Yes, Holymagiman has a few shares in each and he feels it in his bones. Time will tell, but this is his feeling.
And yes, I should mention too that we feel that the light at the end of the tunnel is no longer the express train coming through.
So good luck to all, as Holymagiman and I once more set off on our boat out into the blue yonder.
Blessings of the Lord and all the very best for the New Year. MLA
(20min delay)