X64 0.00% 57.0¢ ten sixty four limited

Groundhog2,I don't want to come off as aloof, but let me define...

  1. 26 Posts.
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    Groundhog2,

    I don't want to come off as aloof, but let me define enterprise value for you.

    Enterprise Value = Mkt Cap + Net Debt

    Enterprise Value (EV) isn't something you pick out of the annual report. Mr. Market gives you the EV on a daily basis. It is true that the Net Debt you do pull from the latest annual report, but mkt cap changes daily.

    Let's look at the latest Balance Sheet figures as of 12/31/22:

    While the full balance sheet figures weren't released, we were given the gross cash and cash equivalents as of 12/31/22 and we were told that there is no long term debt on balance sheet. I'm going to assume that the LT debt from 6/30/22 converted to ST debt. As of June 30, we had $2.5m USD of total debt, and as of Dec 31st we were told that debt increased by $0.5m USD. So we have $3m in debt. This is negligible and I agree with you that it's good news that mgt has avoided debt to date.

    Net Debt = Gross Debt - Gross Cash
    Net Debt = $3m - $65.8m
    Net Debt = ($62.8m)

    Therefore,

    EV = Mkt Cap - $62.8m
    EV = $94.6m - $62.8m
    EV = $31.8m

    If we assume that the company can produce 90k ounces of gold per year, and AISC are 1500 and we can sell the gold for 1900, thats $400*90k = $36m USD of operating profit, so the company is trading on EV/OP of $31.8/$36 = 0.88x. What I'm not clear about is whether there is any depreciation in the AISC figure. If so, our cash profits from each ounce sold is actually more than $400.

    I'm not saying that mgt should spend 100% of its cash on buybacks. I understand that there are CAPEX needs. But with so much cash AND steady/recurring cash flow, why not allocate $1m/month on buybacks? And pay steady dividends. And continue on CAPEX in Phils.

    Regardless, this is an absurdly cheap valuation, and suggests that the market doesn't think very highly of the business/mgt. That is why I think buybacks are useful. If mgt thinks the stock is cheap, demonstrate that buy buying its own shares. Going into PNG will very likely FURTHER DESTROY value, not create it.

    Ask yourself why Barrick Gold is going after Newcrest. Simplistically, Barrick trades on 8x EV/EBITDA, a similar valuation to Newcrest. Consolidation can lead to value creation when you are market leader, and its good for the small guys too who could eventually get swept up. X64 should be trying to sell itself to the likes of Newcrest of Barrick. That sort of deal makes a lot of sense for all parties. Further complicating what is already a complicated situation does not help.

    I think most of us on this forum are long X64 (I wouldn't dare short it, its wayyyy too cheap). We are on the same team here, we are just trying to get a positive return on our investment. I personally just think management can do a LOT better, and it's not that difficult.
 
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