"1. Keeping sufficient cash for the decline: I agree with you that it is important to be self sufficient and extremely prudent when it comes to cash for the decline project in Philippines. As per the Dec report, we are 32% complete on that project, which has an estimated total cost of $54m. Therefore, I expect we will need have another ~$37m or so of CAPEX related to this project to be spent in 2023 and 2024. Keep in mind the project is supposed to be completed around Sept 2024. Fortunately, the company has about $66m in cash an no debt so we are covered there."
Appreciate your thorough analysis but would like to give some feedback on your remaining Tiger Way Capex figure which you stated at 37 Mio USD.
When you check the latest quarterly, total Tiger Way expenditure as of 31/12/2022 was 24,4 Mio USD, which leaves 29,6 Mio USD still to be spent. While excavation of the decline to date is 33% complete, the biggest part of the CAPEX was the initial expenditure on the Tiger Way Decline Infrastructure and Equipment, so a lot of front up Capex before the Decline excavation could actually be started.
Due to the current higher Gold price, I'd reckon that the cash balance could increase to around 70 Mio USD and Tiger Way expenditure to total around 28 Mio USD at the end of the current quarter.
If you deduct the then remaining expenditure for Tiger Way (54 Mio USD-28 Mio USD = 26 Mio USD) from the cash balance of 70 Mio USD, X64 could still have a "free" financial firepower of around 46 Mio USD for buybacks and dividends which is a lot in my opinion (without regarding future cashflows from the Coo mine).
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