Unfortunately it's not about what I'd place on it. I agree with you and your numbers, but I can see the market doesn't agree with us. We'd be higher right now on SNE alone if that was the case. If you apply your same $12.50USD to our SNE holding we'd be well over 20c right now, but we aren't, and our price currently would have some amount attributable to Samo, PE, Erin etc, even if the combined is only 1cps for example.
Yes adding 4c will give us some more backbone, but only on our pre Samo state i.e. 16c now, not 30c. If Samo comes in, from 16c even adding your 32c estimate pushes us to 48c, which is 60% if the sp was 30c now. Compare that to being at 16c now and hitting 48c - 200%. I'd see the point taking the risk while it's still 16c, but not at 30c, particularly if Samo comes in a duster we'd be right back to less than the 16c, a missed opportunity to lock in an almost 100% return of this fictitious pre drill state. That's why I'd sell a chunk but keep some.
Personally I don't like to look at one figure. you worked on $12.50USD/barrel, I'd personally be looking at $5USD, $7.5USD and $10.5USD as well to create a spread and ask myself at each interval whether it would still be worth it.
In addition to that it's also my own financial position I need to consider. I'd have the opportunity to wipe off more than half my mortgage if it hit 30c - after tax at that. As a 33 year old that's darn tempting.
As for the TO comment from kkw, it's always a possibility, but you only need to check maybe three explorers on HC to see that everyone thinks their share is going to be a takeover target. I personally don't think FAR would even want it. They'd put the offer to market just to give the sp a boost, but probably vote against it unless it was impossible to resist. Nobody wants to be paying 'impossible to resist' right now though.
They've found something that goes beyond a nice 'portfolio addition' for a bigger player - they've found something that can make them themselves a bigger player over the next decade. Throw in Samo and there's no doubt about it. Tack on PE and Erin... sheesh... I don't see them giving up that opportunity. Again, I wouldn't rule it out and if it happened I'd only stand to gain as well, I just see it as an unlikely event personally.
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